Spain and Germany are two pre-tournament favourites – Here’s how to profit

Across matchdays 3, 4 and 5 of the World Cup group stage, three games jump off the page from a betting perspective. We break down Spain vs Cape Verde, Germany vs Curacao, and Belgium vs Egypt. Rapid-pick value bets will be discussed for the remaining games on those days.

Is picking Spain to score under 3.5 goals too cautious?

Lamine Yamal and Spain will begin their World Cup voyage in Atlanta when they take on Cape Verde. Cape Verde has some strong individual talent, but La Roja arrive in America as the defending European Champions. Worryingly for Spain, since 2010, they have won just one of their four opening group stage matches. There are fears Cape Verde will meet the same fate as Costa Rica did in 2022, when they lost 7-0 to a rampant Spanish side.

Key Statistics:

• Spain has a 100%-win record against debutant nations at World Cups since 1990: defeating Slovenia 3-1 in 2002 and defeating Ukraine 4-0 in 2006.
• Cape Verde kept a clean sheet in their last match against European opposition.
• Spain form: D-W-D-D-W
• Cape Verde form: L-L-W-W-W

Are Spain more potent than the odds suggest?

Betfred are offering odds of 2.19 for Spain to score under 3.5 goals against Cape Verde, which provides an implied probability of 46%. That seems fairly high, given the fact that Spain have a prolific frontline and are European champions. Lamine Yamal, likely starting from the bench, may be influencing these odds, but it’s really difficult to see Cape Verde’s defence stand up in such a way.

Predictions:

• Spain to win and to score over 3.5 goals @ 1.95 with Betfred – Cape Verde doesn’t have a strong defence, and I think Spain’s style of play will punish them for it.

*Odds are subject to change.

Can Germany lay down a marker by scoring over 3.5 goals?

Germany will get their 2026 World Cup started against the debutant Curacao. The Caribbean island nation defied the odds to qualify, but they face an uphill battle against Julian Nagelsmann’s side. Germany has a habit of taking apart lower-ranked teams, stretching back to their 8-0 dismantling of Saudi Arabia in 2002. There are fears that Curacao could be in for the same treatment in Houston, with many predicting Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Leroy Sane to run riot.

Key Statistics:

• Germany hasn’t won a World Cup opening game since 2014.
• Since 1990, Germany has played just one debutant nation, the United Arab Emirates in Italia 90, they won 5-0.
• Germany has scored eight goals across their last two competitive matches.
• Curacao conceded four goals in their last match against European opposition.

Are the odds giving Germany’s attack too much credit?

At 1.51, the odds for Germany to score over 3.5 goals present an implied probability of 66%. Germany are taking on a team with no World Cup experience, but it’s important to note that the European giants haven’t started tournaments well with their current group of players, losing both of their opening matches in 2018 and 2022. Furthermore, teams generally start slowly, with only 25% of the opening round of group matches finishing with over 2.5 goals in Qatar 2022.

Predictions:

• Germany to win and to score over 3.5 goals @ 1.51 with Betway – Curacao’s lack of World Cup experience and Germany’s attacking players make this the strongest play.
• Germany to win the first half @ 1.27 with Bet365 – Germany will be looking to start quickly and build a lead.

*Odds are subject to change.

Will there be any goals in Belgium’s clash with Egypt?

Belgium and Egypt begin their respective World Cup campaigns in Seattle, with the two nations facing off on June 15. Belgium are no longer hamstrung by the expectations placed on the shoulders of their ‘Golden Generation’, but lack individual quality. Egypt has a clear star in attack, Mohamed Salah, but their team is functional at best in other areas. Fans are concerned this could be one of the tournament’s first goalless draws.

Key Statistics:

• In two World Cup warm-up friendlies, Belgium has scored a total of seven goals.
• Egypt scored just two goals in their last World Cup appearance (Russia 2018).
• Egypt conceded just two goals throughout their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign.

Why aren’t the odds leaning towards a draw?

At 3.95 for a draw between Belgium and Egypt in Seattle, the implied probability given works out at around 25%. This is unusual because of how strong Egypt’s defensive structure is. Conceding just two goals throughout qualification was no coincidence. The market hasn’t fully taken this defensive record into account. I think Belgium winning at 1.71 is far more of a risk than a draw.

Predictions:

• Belgium and Egypt to finish as a draw @ 3.80 with Bet365 – Belgium are yet to find their attacking identity, Romelu Lukaku isn’t fully fit, and Egypt have a well-drilled defence.
• Belgium and Egypt total goals under 0.5 @ 10.0 with Bet365 – Opening games of a tournament can be cagey; there isn’t too much talent out there, and both teams have strong defences.

*Odds are subject to change.

Rapid Picks: Other Key Matches

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will put my £10 on a double with Germany to win and score over 3.5 goals against Curacao @1.66. I’m also backing Sweden to beat Tunisia @1.95. Will these picks pay off?

Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.