Kylian Mbappé is looking to reach his third successive World Cup Final with victory over Spain – Here’s how you can profit

The first of two mouth-watering World Cup semi-finals is set to take place in Arlington on Tuesday, with France taking on Spain. Les Bleus are led by Kylian Mbappé and are looking to reach their third successive World Cup Final. Spain, though, has ridden the wave of their European Championship victory in 2024, and boasts the best defensive record at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Can this defence step up to an even higher level and stop Kylian Mbappé? That will be a fascinating question to be answered in this 20:00 BST kick-off at Dallas Stadium.

Has Spain’s defence been battle-tested enough to prepare for Mbappé?

Spain’s victory over Belgium in the quarter-final saw La Roja concede its first goal of the tournament. It was a hugely impressive defensive record, although they’ve yet to face a team with the attacking potency that Didier Deschamps’ French charges possess.

Spain’s run to the semi-final has been comfortable. In the Group Stage, they faced Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and a Uruguayan side in total turmoil.

After qualifying for the knockout rounds, La Roja have beaten Austria, Portugal and Belgium.

Out of all those opponents, you’d only classify Portugal as a strong opponent, and they were hamstrung by Cristiano Ronaldo starting matches.

Meanwhile, France has swept past all who have stood before them, including the second-ranked team in World Football… Morocco.

Their performance against the African champions was hugely impressive. Mbappé scored and was in unstoppable form. You can’t even just double up on him either, otherwise, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele will crucify you in other areas of the pitch.

This is precisely the conundrum which makes this semi-final so fascinating. Spain aren’t as explosive in attack as they were at Euro 2024, but their defence has been phenomenal. Is there enough quality to limit France’s forward line?

Of the 16 goals Les Bleus have scored in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Mbappé and Dembélé have accounted for 13, which is a staggering 81%. Michael Olise has provided assists for 5 of France’s goals.

Aymeric Laporte and Pau Cubarsi are a brilliant central defensive pairing. They are ably supported by the speed of Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella, whilst Rodri sits just in front of the back-four, protecting any pockets of space.

There is an awful lot of talent there, but it’s difficult to see them all being able to cope with the incredible movement of France’s frontline, especially with Désiré Doué also expected to start.

Which markets should you focus on?

Betway have the French as the most likely winners, with their odds coming in at 2.30, which carries an implied probability of 43.5%. Spain’s odds of winning outright are currently placed at 3.10, with an implied probability of just 32.3%.

Betway are being really generous with their odds of 4.00 for Les Bleus to win to nil *without conceding*. This only has an implied probability of 25%, but Spain’s attacking play hasn’t been blistering this summer.

They’ve only scored 11 goals throughout the tournament, which is fewer than Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands, Germany and the USA, all of whom have already been eliminated.

France is stronger than Spain all over the pitch, with perhaps the exception of the goalkeeping position. It may sound strange to write off La Roja totally, but if you’re brave, I think there is money to be made on France winning without conceding.

Betway are also offering a triple bet of over 1.5 total goals, Kylian Mbappe anytime goal or assist and Ousmane Dembele anytime goal or assist. The odds for this particular combination come to 2.50, which has an implied percentage of 40%.

For those of you who believe this Spain team can raise their level, it could be worth looking at the Both Teams to Score market, as well as pairing individual goalscorers.

Spain’s attacking play will be bolstered by Nico Williams’ return to fitness, with the forward set to start on Tuesday. His importance to Luis de la Fuente’s side can’t be put into words. His presence creates a two-pronged attack with Lamine Yamal and stops defenders from doubling up on the Barcelona winger.

A triple market including Both Teams to Score, Kylian Mbappe to score at any time and Nico Williams to provide a goal or assist at any time is on the Betway market @ 4.50.

Best Predictions for the match

As resolute as Spain has been this tournament, I think the lack of quality opponents will be their undoing.

France is so strong. They arguably have the greatest attacking trio to ever hit form together at a single World Cup, and they are frightening to try to defend against.

Spain will need to retain possession, which they are technically adept at doing, but that, in a sense, limits their ability to attack using the speed of Yamal and Williams.

I see value in backing France; they are the overwhelmingly better team in my opinion, and you should tailor your bets in accordance with that information.

I like the aforementioned triple bet of over 1.5 total goals, Kylian Mbappe anytime goal or assist and Ousmane Dembele anytime goal or assist @ 2.50 (Betway).

My alternative pick would be Both Teams to Score and France to qualify @ 2.79 (Betway).

Key Statistics:

• Spain has won three of their last five matches against Les Bleus.
• Spain has only ever played one previous World Cup semi-final, and they won, whilst France has won four out of their seven previous World Cup semi-finals.
• Lamine Yamal has played against France twice, scoring three goals across both games.
• France will be the third team after Germany and Brazil to play in three successive World Cup semi-finals.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players:

France (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan – Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne – Manu Koné, Adrien Rabiot – Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué – Kylian Mbappé.

Aurelian Tchouaméni is still battling a muscle injury and is unlikely to play against Spain.

Spain (4-3-3): Unai Simón – Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella – Fabián Ruiz, Rodri, Dani Olmo – Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Mikel Oyarzabal.

Yeremy Pino is likely to miss his fourth successive match due to a collarbone injury.

Víctor Muñoz has a muscle injury that has kept him out of all of Spain’s campaign to this point, and he isn’t expected to return against France.

France will prove far too strong for Spain, and Mbappe will shine

Few players have looked as locked in as Kylian Mbappé has throughout this World Cup. He seems to be on a personal mission to avenge the 2022 final defeat and take Lionel Messi’s World Cup scoring record at the same time.

I think Les Bleus will win to nil and Kylian Mbappé will score at any time, sending his team to a third successive World Cup final.

*Odds are subject to change.

For my other FIFA World Cup 2026 analysis and predictions, click here.

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a double bet in the France vs Spain fixture. I will go with France to qualify and Both Teams to Score @ 2.79 with Betway. I’ve been behind Russell for much of the KO phase of the tournament, but a big win for me in the England-Norway quarter-final has given me a tiny chance of redemption. Could this pick build my momentum? Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.