Will Argentina Grind Out Another Win? Or Can Switzerland Make History? – Quarter-Final Smart Picks

Argentina meet Switzerland in the World Cup quarter-finals at Kansas City Stadium. Star of the show Lionel Messi is looking to score again and lead Argentina into the last 4. Switzerland, the underdogs, will play their first WC quarter-final in 72 years. The Red Crosses want revenge for their WC2014 exit to Argentina, so this 02:00 BST kick-off promises to be an epic clash.

Can Argentina Continue To Lean On Messi?

Argentina are walking a tightrope in the World Cup knockout rounds. Lionel Scaloni’s men beat Cape Verde after extra time in the Round of 32. Last time out, they made a heroic comeback, winning 3-2 from 2-0 down against Egypt. Their opponents, Switzerland, upset Colombia via a penalty shootout in the last 16. Murat Yakin’s side enter this match with minimal pressure as underdogs.

Lionel Messi has been a star of this World Cup with 8 goals off 5.08 xG in 5 matches. Even though 5 other Argentine players have contributed 1 goal each, are La Albiceleste over-reliant on their number 10?

The Swiss rely on their Akanji-Elvedi defensive backbone, conceding just 3 times in 5 matches. But they’ve yet to face such a dangerous, high-scoring attack. So, they will be wary of Messi’s subtle movement and match-winning ability. Argentina have 14 goals off 10.85 xG, and are difficult to contain for the whole 90 minutes.

The Argentine defence was exposed by Egypt’s quick counter-attacks. But even with 9 goals off 9.21 xG, Switzerland lack a cutting edge. According to Opta, their -0.21 goals vs xG is far inferior to Argentina’s 3.15.

However, this match could be tougher than expected for Argentina. While their 60.4% average possession is in the top 10, Switzerland average 56.7% and boast a 90.7% successful pass rate.

Which Markets Should You Focus On?

It’s no surprise to see Argentina as 1.70 (Coral) favourites to beat Switzerland, which has an implied probability of 59%. Those odds look short in my opinion. While Argentina carry the aura of defending champions, Switzerland are a compact, well-drilled side. You can back Switzerland to win at odds of 5.50 (Betfred), with an implied 18% chance.

Admittedly, the Red Crosses had a favourable group B draw and needed penalties to defeat Colombia. But they’re in the last 8 on merit.

Interestingly, you could get odds of 1.80 or more for Lionel Messi to score. Even considering their tight defence, it will be tough for Switzerland to restrict him. So, Messi to score at 1.95 (BetVictor), a 52% implied probability, is a standout selection.

I also like Messi to provide an assist at 4.5 (Coral). At 22% implied probability. Looking at the stats, it’s an interesting angle. Messi has 1 assist at this tournament, but it kick-started the comeback against Egypt. He has created 15 chances and averages 0.58 xA before this quarter-final.

But I cannot see value in over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 or under 2.5 at 1.67. Switzerland’s solid defence versus the elite Argentine attack could produce either a blockbuster or a low-scoring match. That said, both teams to score @ 2.10 (Betfred) is interesting. Based on Argentina’s creaking backline, which conceded twice against both Egypt and Cape Verde.

Swiss captain Granit Xhaka has won possession 37 times in 5 games, topping the stats. But he has 2 yellow cards already. So, Xhaka to be carded @ 4.33 (Bet365) isn’t an outrageous pick.

Best Predictions for the Match

Switzerland have performed above expectations at this World Cup. But they will struggle to outdo this resilient Argentine team. I can see the Swiss holding Argentina until half-time. However, La Seleccion’s savvy and attacking magic leads me to predict half-time/full-time Draw/Argentina @ 4.60 (William Hill).

My second prediction is Messi to score @ 1.95 (BetVictor). He is striving to continue his goalscoring run – and stay in the top goalscorer race.

Key Statistics

• Average xG and xGA per match at this tournament: Argentina 2.17/0.60, Switzerland 1.84/0.87.
• Switzerland are in the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time since 1954, when they hosted the tournament.
• Argentina are unbeaten in 7 meetings with Switzerland. La Albiceleste won 2 of the last 3 head-to-heads, including a 1-0 win in the WC2014 Round of 16.
• Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 Argentina-Switzerland H2Hs.
• Lionel Messi has 3 goals and 1 assist in 3 appearances against Switzerland, including a hat-trick in Argentina’s 3-1 win in 2012.
• Messi has now scored 21 World Cup finals goals in total.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players

Argentina (4-1-3-2): Emiliano Martinez – Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Facundo Medina – Leandro Paredes – Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis MacAllister, Enzo Fernandez – Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez.

Leonardo Belardi will miss the entire tournament due to a calf injury. Otherwise, Argentina have no major fitness issues.

Switzerland (4-2-3-1): Gregor Kobel – Denis Zakaria, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi, Ricardo Rodriguez – Remo Freuler, Granit Xhaka – Dan Ndoye, Ardon Jashari, Ruben Vargas – Breel Embolo.

Switzerland could be without Michel Aebischer (muscle injury), Luca Jaquez (muscle injury), and Johan Manzambi (knee).

Messi To Star Again In Tight Contest

I see Lionel Messi taking centre stage yet again. He can score at least 1 goal as Argentina knock out stubborn Switzerland. But they may need another late attacking burst to reach the semi-finals.

*Odds are subject to change.

Battle of the Ws

In this round, I will place my virtual £10 on half-time/full-time Draw/Argentina @ 4.60. Check out my progress against Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws.