England and France eye morale-raising victories before long flights home – Here’s how you can profit

For both England and France, their shot at World Cup glory in 2026 is over, yet their tournament isn’t yet complete, with the small matter of the third-place playoff set to take place in Miami on Saturday. Les Bleus suffered a comprehensive defeat to Spain in their semi-final, whilst Thomas Tuchel’s England surrendered a 1-0 lead to Lionel Messi and Argentina on Wednesday. With a lot of players expected to be rested for the match, there are only really individual statistics to play for. How can you profit from this 22:00 BST kick-off at Miami Stadium?

Can a deflated England cope with France’s blistering attack?

England’s defeat to Argentina featured a collapse for the ages. There have been just two World Cup semi-finals in which the team that has taken a 1-0 lead has then proceeded to lose. England carry the distinction of being the unfortunate loser in both cases.

Thomas Tuchel’s defence was always the clear weak point in the England squad, yet in the biggest moment, the German coach elected to lean entirely upon them.

For France, they had an equally disappointing night against Spain. Kylian Mbappe was the first to admit that Les Bleus had simply failed to turn up, surrendering meekly to La Roja.

Whilst it’s difficult to predict just who will be on the pitch in a match which doesn’t have any real consequences for the teams involved, you’d expect France’s attack to feature.

Mbappe can still win the Golden Boot and overtake Lionel Messi as the leading goalscorer in World Cup history. Yes… goals in the third-place playoff do count towards those totals.

As such, you can only imagine Didier Deschamps will keep the Real Madrid forward in his final starting XI as France manager.

England’s defence will be fatigued from the Argentina game, and even at their best they’d find it difficult to contain Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele.

I think goals are on the agenda here for Les Bleus, although there is rarely ever any real defensive structure on display in this glorified friendly.

France are the second-highest scorers in the tournament with 16 goals, although they failed to find the net against Spain. England, on the other hand, has only kept two clean sheets all tournament, and they came against Ghana and Panama.

Which markets should you focus on?

Betway have France down as the favourites for this match, with the odds for Les Bleus to win coming in at 1.95, which holds an implied probability of 51%.

Pairing a French victory with Kylian Mbappe to score at any time will see you receive odds of 2.50 from Betway, which has an implied probability of 40%.

England’s main goalscoring options come from Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, although it’s unclear if the pair will play any part in Miami on Saturday.

Kane to score at any time is at 2.00 with Betway, whilst Bellingham is at 3.00 to score at any time. Given the defensive concentration that goes missing in these World Cup bronze finals, it’s no surprise that Betway are only giving customers odds of 1.45 for Both Teams to Score. That carries an implied probability of 69%, so you may be best served by turning that into a double or treble, otherwise the profit margin is rather small.

Best Predictions for the match

A lot of these predictions come with the disclaimer that a lot of players who haven’t played any part at the tournament so far will finally get on the pitch.

Kobbie Mainoo is expected to be given some minutes by Tuchel, although some will say that it may come a couple of days too late.

France’s midfield is likely to see some change too, with Aurelien Tchouameni likely to return to the bench as he battles fitness struggles. Manu Kone has been a revelation this tournament, and he could provide France with an element of power and control in midfield.

I see value in backing Both Teams to Score, although I don’t think a shell-shocked England will be able to keep France at bay.

In a match with little on the line, it becomes a straight footballing shootout, and France has better players across the pitch.

Mbappe will be motivated by individual accolades and will be focused, which leads me to lean towards a double consisting of a French victory and an Mbappe goal at any time @ 2.50 (Betway).

Key Statistics:

• England haven’t beaten France in a competitive fixture since June 1982.
• In the last nine meetings between the two teams, England have won just once. France have won six times.
• Les Bleus have finished in third place at two previous World Cup tournaments, in 1958 and 1986, scoring 10 goals across both tournaments.
• England has only played in two third-place matches in their history, losing both.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players:

France (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan, Malo Gusto, Ibrahim Konaté, Maxence Lacroix, Théo Hernández – Manu Koné, Warren Zaïre-Emery – Désiré Doué, Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé – Bradley Barcola.

France have no definitive injuries heading into the match against England.

England (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Dan Burn, Nico O’Reilly – Kobbie Mainoo, Elliot Anderson – Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Eberechi Eze – Harry Kane.

Jordan Henderson will miss the game through a broken arm, whilst there are concerns about muscular injuries picked up by both Reece James and Djed Spence against Argentina.

France will have too much in attack for a makeshift English defence

Kylian Mbappé will add to his goal tally in Miami. England’s defence won’t have the structure to be able to deal with him, and they are at low ebb after their defeat to Argentina.

I think Didier Deschamps’ spell as French manager will come to an end with a victory, with France likely to keep a clean sheet.

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a double bet in the France vs England fixture. I will go with France to win to nil @ 4.20 with Betway. I’ve not been able to totally catch up to Russell, and it’s looking like I’m going to run out of time, so I need a big win. Will this be it? Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.