Controlled Spain Meet Fiery Argentina In Blockbuster World Cup Final – Smart Picks Analysed

The 2026 FIFA World Cup final is set for New Jersey this Sunday, as Spain face Argentina. The Spanish, fresh from a clinical semi-final victory over France, are aiming for a second world title. Argentina broke English hearts in the last 4, and are looking to defend their World Cup (WC) title. Which of these two heavyweights will lift the famous World Cup trophy? Expect more iconic moments in this 20:00 BST kick-off at New York New Jersey Stadium.

Can Spain Stop Argentina Winning Back-to-Back World Cups?

Reigning European champions Spain booked their World Cup final spot in style. La Roja dismantled much-fancied France with a controlled 2-0 semi-final victory. Luis de la Fuente’s team dominated the midfield. According to Opta, they limited France to just 3 shots on target (SOT) and no big chances, allowing 0.30 xG against.

Meanwhile, Argentina needed more late heroics to defeat England in Wednesday’s second semi-final. Lionel Messi again stepped up, producing 2 assists as La Albiceleste came from 1-0 down to win 2-1.

The Spanish backline has conceded just once at this tournament – in their 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium. They also stopped France from scoring in the semi-final, so they won’t fear any Argentina forwards like Golden Boot leader Messi (8 goals), Julián Álvarez, or Lautaro Martínez.

In contrast, Argentina needed their dogged mentality to narrowly get past Cape Verde, Egypt, Switzerland, and England to reach this final. So, Spain will sense vulnerability in the holders.

This final features two experienced, mentally tough sides looking to impose their game plan. Will Spain’s possession-based style dominate? Or can Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina turn it into a scrappy encounter?

Which WC Final Markets Should You Focus On?

The markets make Spain favourites to win within 90 minutes at 2.30 (Betfred). That’s a 43% implied probability. At 3.50 (LeoVegas), Argentina are given a 29 % implied chance.

Argentina have scored 19 goals off 14.37 xG in 7 WC2026 matches. But Spain will be confident of shutting down their attack. La Roja’s defence has conceded just 1 goal from 2.15 xG against, the lowest at this tournament. So, I cannot back both teams to score at 1.95 (Betway). Instead, under 2.5 goals at 1.62 (Bet365) looks the stronger pick, with a 62% implied chance. Spain are masterful at keeping the ball under pressure and average 63.9% possession. After containing France, they will be confident of limiting Argentina’s attacking play.

Riding a 37-match unbeaten streak, Spain are also dangerous in attack. They have averaged 17.14 shots per game and 6 shots SOT. Yet, outside of 7 goals in total against Saudi Arabia and Austria, Spain have scored 6 goals across their other 5 games. Plus, Argentina average 0.57 xGA per game. So, Spain to win & under 3.5 goals at 2.80 (Betfred) is the smart pick, with an implied probability of 36%. Or if you’re looking for a higher-odds selection, William Hill are offering Spain to win to nil at 4.0.

Mikel Oyarzabal to score at 2.80 (BetVictor) looks a solid pick. He has 5 goals at this World Cup and is Spain’s main penalty taker. He is averaging 3.65 shots, 1.82 SOT, and 0.65 xG per game.

With a record of 6 clean sheets in 7 WC2026 matches, Spain to keep a clean sheet at 2.63 (Bet365) looks a sensible pick. La Roja have faced just 10 SOT (1.43 per game) and won 62.3% of aerial duels, the highest at this World Cup.

Pedro Porro to score (15.0 at Betfred) is an interesting outsider option. Spain’s right-back scored the second goal against France, and has 2 goals off 1.33 xG at this tournament. He could exploit space down the Argentine left flank, where they conceded against England in the semi-final.

Yet again, I highlight Messi 1+ assist at 6.0 (Coral). He delivered 3 assists across the quarter-finals and semis. His WC2026 stats show 25 chances created, 4 assists, and 0.60 xA per match.

Best Predictions for the Match

Argentina usually start slow in games, and I expect Spain to dominate the ball from kick-off. Just like their last 4 win against France, Spain can spot gaps behind the Argentina defence to claim a low-scoring win. So, my main prediction is Spain to win & under 3.5 goals (2.80 at Betfred).

My alternative pick is Mikel Oyarzabal to score (2.88 at LeoVegas). He’s a man for the big occasion, having scored Spain’s winner in the Euro 2024 final. He also smashed home a nerveless penalty against France in the semi-finals. Oyarzabal can star in the 23rd World Cup final to deliver a famous Spain victory.

Key Statistics

• Average xG & xGA per match at WC2026: Spain 1.91/0.31, Argentina 2.05/0.57.
• Spain have won 3 of their last 5 matches against Argentina. Spain registered an emphatic 6-1 win in the last H2H in March 2018.
• Spain won 3 of their last 5 WC2026 matches by a single goal.
• Both teams scored in just 3 of Spain’s last 10 matches.
• Before this tournament, Spain hadn’t won a World Cup knockout game since winning the trophy in 2010.
• Spain enter this final undefeated in 37 straight matches, level with Italy’s record for a European nation.
• Mikel Oyarzabal has scored 7 major tournament goals for Spain, fourth best in their all-time list.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players

Spain (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon – Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsì, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella – Fabian Ruiz, Rodri – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Alex Buena – Mikel Oyarzabal.

Spain have a few key injuries. Both Yeremy Pino (shoulder sprain) and Victor Munoz (calf) are ruled out of the final. Pedro Porro is also doubtful with a muscle strain, so Marcos Llorente may step in at right-back.

Argentina (4-1-4-1): Emiliano Martinez – Nahuel Molina, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nicolas Tagliafico – Leandro Paredes – Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Julian Alvarez – Lionel Messi.

Facundo Medina is Argentina’s main absentee with a calf injury.

Spain To Win Second World Cup In Style

Spain will dominate possession to outdo a fired-up Argentina. Ultimately, Spain’s superior defence, excellent midfield, and calmness under pressure will secure a narrow win. Mikel Orayzabal can take centre stage, as La Roja win their second World Cup title in a blockbuster final.

Battle of the Ws

In this final round, my last virtual £10 is on Spain to win & under 3.5 goals @ 2.80. How will this World Cup prediction challenge finish? Check out how my picks stack up against Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws.