Seb Knows: Croatia vs England Match Preview and Prediction

Thomas Tuchel will be looking to build on two promising England performances as the Three Lions travel to Croatia on Saturday.

After falling short at the World Cup, Jude Bellingham and co went toe-to-toe with the reigning European and World champions, Spain, last weekend. Unfortunately, a missed Harry Kane penalty and a Marc Guehi howler at the back were enough to hand Luis de la Fuente another win.

England looked more dominant against Czechia on Tuesday, but that was largely thanks to a Pavel Sulc red card in the 25th minute. Tuchel will still be concerned at how easily teams are able to carve his Three Lions apart at the back.

For all the brilliance of Kane and Bellingham in the summer, England do have a habit of turning up to tournaments as their own worst enemies.

Croatia, on the other hand, were dumped out of the World Cup in the Round of 32 stage after a narrow 2-1 defeat to Portugal. Ironically, their campaign included an opening match against England, and they went toe-to-toe in the first half (2-2) before the Three Lions ran away with it in the second 45.

In the latest batch of Nations League fixtures, Croatia have been hit and miss. A 2-1 victory away to Czechia set them up nicely, with Luka Modric rolling back the years. Unfortunately, this was short-lived as a 4-1 defeat to Lamine Yamal and Spain served as a humbling reality check.

Expectations, as always, are high heading into Euro 2028, and what better way to prepare than lifting the Nations League trophy?

Croatia vs England is becoming an iconic grudge match

When you think about England rivalries, your mind goes to the likes of Germany, France, Portugal, and Argentina. At the moment, England fans would love to be seen as Spain’s main rivals for the 2028 European crown, but it feels like they are still on a level below.

Since 2018, England have faced Croatia five times, with four of those coming in major tournaments. If that isn’t the making of a modern-day rivalry, I don’t know what is.

Croatia took the bragging rights back in the summer of 2018 when they shocked the world, sending England crashing out in the semi-finals of the World Cup. That Kieran Trippier free-kick seems so far away now!

Since then, the Three Lions have gone unbeaten against their old nemesis. A Nations League draw back in October 2018 was England’s last taste of dropped points against the Croats. A Nations League win at home in November that same year, a 1-0 victory at the 2020 European Championships, and a 4-2 win in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup have at least rebuilt England’s confidence since their semi exit.

It should also be a good sign that England gave Spain a good game before Croatia got thrashed 4-1 by the same opponents.

Croatia vs England: Team news and injury update

Thomas Tuchel has injury problems to combat this time around, though. Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento all withdrew from the England squad before a ball was even kicked.

Croatia, on the other hand, have an almost completely clean bill of health, meaning Slavan Bilic has a full squad to choose from.

Fortunately, Kane and Gordon both have two goals in two games, and the likes of Myles Lewis-Skelly, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Lewis Hall, and Alex Scott have seamlessly stepped into the squad.

Against an ageing Croatia team, pace in behind could be key for the Lions on Saturday. Keep an eye on the left side where Hall and Gordon caused all kinds of problems against Czechia. Harry Kane is likely to drop deep and pick out balls over the top to Saka and Bellingham too.

Luka Vuskovic is one to watch for the Croatians, with the centre-back swapping Tottenham for Brighton in the summer. Not only is he a mean presence in his own box, but he has more than a sharp eye for goal at the other end. Luka Modric is, of course, always a threat, and Ivan Perisic has been shining from left-back of late. He always loves to turn up in the big moments.

Predicted line-ups:

Croatia: Livakovic; Perisic, Gvardiol, Vuskovic, Stanisic; Kovacic, Modric; Ivanovic, P. Sucic, L Sucic; Matanovic.

England: Trafford; Hall, Guehi, Konsa, Quansah; Anderson, O’Reilly; Rogers, Bellingham, Saka; Kane.

Seb’s Pick

It’s difficult to see anything but an England win here. That feels like a safe bet, and a decently attractive one at 5/6 via Bet365.

However, the Three Lions will likely be open again, especially away from home, unless they have been able to sort their defensive frailties in a matter of days.

That’s why I like the look of a BTTS bet on this one. Bet365 is offering 8/13 on that.

With England’s leaky defence and world-class attacking talent, I’m tempted to double down on that theme and go for over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

If you’re looking for a third market, then Jude Bellingham to score or assist at 13/10 looks good. Tuchel may be tempted to rotate for England’s third game, but Bellingham was rested against Czechia.