Premier League New Boys: Will All Three Promoted Teams Survive?

The start of the 2026/27 Premier League season is just days away. The first game sees Arsenal host Coventry, and these two clubs will have very different aims. The Gunners will be hoping to defend the Premier League title. In contrast, Coventry will be aiming for survival. Indeed, staying up will be the primary goal of many teams in the top flight.

Clubs like Leeds, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest will have survival as their most important aim. Even Sunderland, who finished seventh last term, will have reaching 38 or 40 points as their initial target before seeking to kick on once Premier League safety is assured. However, for the three newly promoted sides, Coventry, Ipswich and Hull, there is no doubt that finishing 17th would be a successful campaign.

The PL new boys will hope for higher, and they will aim for more. They will look at what Sunderland achieved last term, and Leeds too (Daniel Farke’s men finished 14th), and believe that there is no need to limit their ambitions. But at the same time, they will be all too aware that Burnley got 100 points in the Championship in 2024/25 and then could only manage 22 in the Premier League a season later.

Promoted Sides Have Struggled in Recent Campaigns

Last term Sunderland and Leeds defied expectations and earned another season in the EPL. Most pundits expected all three PL newcomers to be relegated. That had occurred in both the previous two seasons. Moreover, in 2023/24 and 2024/25, the six clubs to suffer instant demotion achieved a total of just 125 points between them! That is an average of fewer than 21 points per side. For reference, the three clubs that came up in 2022/23 got 129 points collectively, while back in 2000/01 they got a massive 152.

Since the PL switched to 20 teams, and thus 38 games, the average tally of the newly promoted trio is 113 points. Last season they managed 123. In 2024/25, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton achieved a record-low combined total of 59. Indeed, the promoted teams have managed a below-average aggregate in five of the past seven seasons. That includes the two lowest-ever totals, plus the fourth worst (in 2021/22).

The question is, will 2026/27 be more like last term, or more like the two that preceded it? Will it be more akin to 2022/23, when all three of the promoted teams survived, or will we see one, two or even all three make an instant return to the Championship?

What do the Bookies Think?

As noted, last term two out of three new boys survived. Generally speaking, one or two do. In fact, since 1996/97, when the PL dropped to 20 clubs, that has been the case in 23 out of 30 seasons. All three went down in 1997/98, plus the two seasons before last. In contrast, all three survived in 2001/02, 2011/12, 2017/18 and 2022/23.

Therefore, history suggests that at least one out of Coventry, Ipswich and Hull will be demoted in May 2027. It should be little surprise that the trio are all odds-on for instant relegation. Hull are as short as 1/6. That might seem harsh, but bookmakers had them among the favourites to be relegated from the Championship 12 months ago, and their promotion was a huge surprise.

Coventry and Ipswich finished first and second in the second tier last term. Bookmakers offer odds of 5/6 on both. Allowing for the bookies’ profit margin, that suggests they give both Coventry and the Tractor Boys just under a 50% chance of survival. The oddsmakers price Sunderland, Fulham and Palace next, at 4/1, 11/2 and 6/1 respectively.

How Many for the Drop?

Based on those odds, it is clear the bookies are expecting the long-term trend to continue. Some betting sites also offer a market on how many promoted teams will be relegated. The current odds are:

• Zero relegated is 25/1
• One team is 15/4
• Two teams is 10/11
• All three sides is 4/1

This gives us a clearer picture of their expectations. Generally, the odds are in line with what fans would instinctively expect. They suggest that the most likely outcome is one or two of the promoted clubs will be relegated. Additionally, they indicate that all three being demoted is far more likely than all three surviving. That latter point goes against the historic trend. It is, however, far more in line with recent seasons.

Coventry City

Coventry City won the Championship with ease last term. They triumphed by 11 points and had the best goal difference in the division. Moreover, they scored more goals than anyone else and also had the best defence.

It is no huge surprise, therefore, that bookmakers give them a reasonable chance of staying up. They have spent around £100m in the transfer window and are likely to add to their squad further. Goalie Carl Rushworth, who was superb for them on loan last term, is an excellent addition.

However, their other three big signings are all aged 22 or under and have limited PL experience. They need to add more proven quality. In Frank Lampard they have a manager who knows the top flight through and through and did well to keep Everton up in 2022/23. His coaching career has had ups and downs, but he may yet prove to be a top-class manager. Boosted by vociferous home support, we think the Sky Blues will just do enough to survive.

Ipswich

Coventry return to the top flight for the first time in 26 years. In contrast, Ipswich are back after just one season in the Championship. They finished 19th in the PL in 2024/25. Moreover, they won just four games and accumulated a mere 22 points.

They have spent a similar amount to Coventry in the summer transfer window. Issa Diop brings them experience and Premier League know-how, as does fellow Fulham recruit Saša Lukić. However, they really need Emersonn, signed from Toulouse for around £25m, to hit the ground running. He is 21 though, so that is a big ask in a side that is unlikely to create much.

Some bookmakers make Gary O’Neil’s side favourites to stay up ahead of Coventry. We disagree, though. It is telling that Kieran McKenna opted to walk away from the club after earning them promotion. While the new manager has kept both Bournemouth and Wolves in the top flight previously, his new club lack the resources to stay up.

Hull

Bookies price Hull at 1/6 for relegation and a chunky 7/2 to stay up, and that tells its own story. The Tigers have spent the least of the three PL newcomers in the transfer market thus far. Around a quarter of their outlay has been on Greek goalie Konstantinos Tzolakis and, promising as he is, they need far more quality in all positions.

Boss Sergej Jakirović has done incredibly well since taking over at the MKM Stadium, but he will need to be a miracle worker to keep Hull up. Financial restrictions meant they had to sell players to avoid a points deduction, and they have been playing catch up ever since. They upset the odds last year, but we do not see them doing so again this time in the tougher environment of the Premier League. They are good value at odds of 11/8 to finish bottom.