Seb Knows: Spain vs England Match Preview and Predictions

Although fans of club football bemoan the existence of mid-season international breaks, it’s hard to argue with a winner-takes-all showdown between Spain and England – arguably the two best teams on the planet. The Three Lions fell one game short of a World Cup final against the Spanish this summer, but will get a chance to prove their credentials against the champions at the Riyadh Air Metropolitana on Sunday. If England win, Thomas Tuchel and co top Group C of the Nations League. If Spain avoid defeat, they claim that same honour.

Luis de la Fuente’s side have a perfect record in the competition thus far, beating both Croatia and Czechia home and away. In fact, the closest the Spanish came to dropping a point was away to England, with the Three Lions taking a 2-1 lead at Wembley before Alex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal completed a second-half comeback.

England and Spain both come into the match off the back of wins. Baena and Marc Pubill scored in a 2-0 win over Czechia on Thursday night for Spain, with a Ladislav Krejci red card certainly helping matters. England, on the other hand, beat Croatia 2-1 at Wembley thanks to a Morgan Rogers opener and a Harry Kane penalty. The Three Lions captain scored on what was already a record-breaking night for him, having surpassed Peter Shilton’s record of 125 England caps.

The winner of Group C will go into the quarter-finals stage up against the runner-up from another group. The runner-up will face another group winner. The quarters take place across two legs on 25-27 March and 28-30 March 2027. The finals themselves – comprising the semi-finals, third-place play-off, and the final – take place in June.

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Spain vs England: A History of Huge International Clashes

Spain and England have gone head-to-head a total of 29 times throughout history, dating back to their first meeting in 1929. England have the slight upper hand when it comes to results, claiming 14 wins to Spain’s 12, with the remaining three ending in draws. The Three Lions have scored 52 times against Spain, and conceded just 39.

However, La Roja have definitely had the bragging rights in recent years. Not only did Spain beat England in the 2024 European Championships final, but they have also won three of the last four competitive fixtures between the two. England do have a history of beating the Spanish at major tournaments, though, knocking them out on penalties in the 1996 Euros quarter-finals and beating them 2-1 in the 1980 Euros group stage. Thomas Tuchel will be hoping to channel that kind of performance in Madrid on Sunday.

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Spain and England Team News and Injury Update

While England’s front six against Croatia contained some of the most devastating attacking names on the planet – including Ballon d’Or winner Harry Kane – the defence didn’t feel quite as stacked. Marc Guehi was forced to withdraw from the squad through injury (replaced by Dan Burn), while Reece James is also sidelined at the moment. Ezri Konsa and Djed Spence underwent individual training programs last week but are expected to be available for the Spain clash.

La Roja were without their talisman Lamine Yamal against Czechia due to a minor inflammation of his right knee, but he is tipped to return in time to face England on Sunday. Mikel Oyarzabal was also missing on Thursday due to illness, and he is expecting the birth of his child, so it remains to be seen whether the striker will be available. Spain are also without the likes of Rodri and Dani Olmo in their squad this international break.

Predicted line-ups:

Spain: Simón; Cucurella, Huijsen, Cubarsi, Porro; Ruiz, Zubimendi; Baena, Torres, Yamal; Oyarzabal.

England: Trafford; Spence, Burn, Konsa, White; Rice, Anderson, Bellingham; Gordon, Kane, Rogers.

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Seb’s Pick

Spain definitely come into this one as favourites. Not only are they world champions, not only are they playing at home, and not only is a draw good enough for them, but England also look pretty depleted at the back. The drop-off from Guehi and Konsa to Quansah and Burn is pretty severe, let’s be honest.

That being said, a leaky England defence paired with the fact that the Three Lions need a win could make for a pretty open, end-to-end match with (fingers crossed) plenty of goals. That’s why I’m taking advantage of the 16/1 odds on SkyBet for a 3-2 Spain win. Although, you could look at over 2.5 goals at 1/2 or over 3.5 goals at 5/4. England handicap bet of +1 at 6/5 also feels like a good opportunity, on the off chance of a 1-1 or 2-2 draw.

Both Teams to Score feels like an incredibly safe bet, albeit with low 1/2 odds.

If you’re looking for goalscorers, then I would perhaps ignore the poor odds for the likes of Kane and Yamal and instead look toward Baena, Torres, Rogers, and even a Dan Burn set-piece if he starts.