Spain Set To Dash Belgium’s World Cup Hopes – Here’s How To Profit

Spain meet Belgium in an all-European World Cup quarter-final, looking to extend their 35-match unbeaten run. Since a tame opening 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, Spain have 4 consecutive wins to nil, including a stoppage-time winner to squeeze past Portugal in the last 16. Belgium, however, have recovered from a slow start to this tournament. The Red Devils dominated co-hosts USA 4-1 in the Round of 16, but are clear underdogs to reach the semi-finals.

Spain Are Expected To Win, But Must Beware The Red Devils’ Attack

After topping Group H with ease, Spain have continued their positive form in the knockout rounds. They demolished Austria 3-0 in the Round of 32, allowing no shots on target (SOT). Then claimed a tense 1-0 win over Portugal to reach the quarter-finals, thanks to a 91st-minute Mikel Merino winner. Incredibly, Spain conceded only 2 SOT all game and none in the second half.

Spain average 65.6% possession (Opta) across 5 WC2026 matches and are expected to dominate this match. Despite seeing 55.4% of the ball against Portugal, they looked calm and composed. Interestingly, 5 different players have scored Spain’s 9 goals so far, showing a varied threat. Belgium will aim for transitions and direct attacks through Leandro Trossard and Charles De Ketelaere, which yielded success against the USA.

According to Opta, Belgium have registered 107 shots (32 SOT) in 5 matches compared to Spain’s 93 (23 SOT). Also, both teams have the highest touches in the opposition box, with 211 (Belgium) and 185 (Spain), suggesting an explosive quarter-final clash.

Belgium’s 13 goals off 10.54 xG look impressive, with 11 in their last 3 matches. But 5 were against a limited New Zealand. So, Belgium could struggle to breach a Spanish defence that’s yet to concede at this tournament. Spain have allowed only 29 shots (5 SOT) and 0.05 xG per shot.

Where is The Best Value in This Match?

Spain are favourites to defeat Belgium at odds of 1.62, an implied probability of 62%. In contrast, Belgium are 5.50 to win, or just 18% implied chance.

The 1.62 for Spain to win is too short. I prefer Spain to win and record a clean sheet. La Roja didn’t concede in 9 of their last 10 victories. Indeed, La Roja have shut out quality opposition such as Uruguay, Austria, and Portugal across their last 3 matches.

Rodri has completed 499 of 534 attempted passes (93.5%) for Spain. In tandem with Pedri, he can control the midfield and limit Belgium’s attacking chances. The Belgians scored late goals against Senegal in the last 32. They also benefited from slack defending by the USA last time out. Despite those scoring exploits, Spain are passing and defensive masters, so BTTS “no” @ 1.95 (Bet365) is preferred to BTTS at just 1.83.

Elsewhere, Leandro Trossard has created 17 chances at WC2026, with 2 goals and 2 assists. You can get 3.40 (Bet365) for him to score or assist.

Mikel Orayzabal leads the line superbly for La Roja, scoring 4 goals off 3.06 xG and making 1 assist at this tournament. He’s notched 11 goals in his last 10 international matches.

Best Predictions for the Match

Even noting Belgium’s high-scoring in their last three World Cup matches, I cannot see them overcoming this experienced Spain side. My main prediction is another Spain win to nil @ 2.80 (Betvictor) against the Red Devils.

Spain are confident of securing a fifth win on the spin. But Portugal double-marked star man Lamine Yamal last Monday, opening up space in other attacking areas. So, my alternative pick is Mikel Orayzabal to score a goal (2.20 @ Bet365) – a 46% implied probability. His stealthy movement can take advantage of Belgian defensive lapses to register a fifth strike at this World Cup.

Key Statistics

• World Cup 2026 Average xG vs xGA per game: Spain 1.95/0.30, Belgium 2.11/1.23.
• Spain have dominated their head-to-heads against Belgium, winning 5 in a row, including 4 to nil since 2004.
• However, Belgium knocked Spain out of the 1986 World Cup on a penalty shootout. But Spain got revenge with a 2-1 group stage win at Italia ‘90.
• Spain’s 1-0 win over Portugal set a World Cup finals record of 6 straight clean sheets (dating back to WC2022).
• Belgium reached the last 8 or better in 3 of their past 4 World Cup finals appearances since 2002.
• Both teams failed to score in 7 of Spain’s last 10 matches.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players

Spain (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon – Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsì, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Rodri – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Alex Buena – Mikel Oyarzabal.

Spain have no injuries or suspensions. Nico Williams has recovered from a muscle injury and could make the starting XI.

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois – Timothy Castagne, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy, Maxim De Cuyper – Hans Vanaken, Nicolas Raskin – Leandro Trossard, Youri Tielemans, Dodi Lukebakio, Charles De Ketelaere.

Amadou Onana is out of the tournament after tearing his ACL against the USA. Leandro Trossard is doubtful with a muscle injury.

Pass Masters Spain To Reach The Last 4

Spain will control the tempo and flow of this match, dominating the ball to record another slick win to nil. Luis de la Fuente’s side should limit Belgium’s attacking verve as they march into the semi-finals.

*Odds are subject to change.

Looking for more World Cup match previews? Visit our dedicated World Cup hub for expert analysis, in-depth previews and key insights from me and Chris Winterburn ahead of every clash.

Battle of the Ws

For this round, I will put my £10 on a single bet: Spain to win to nil at 2.80. My latest prediction won, as Messi scored against Egypt. Follow my progress versus Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws, and see if my pick will be successful.