England vs DR Congo Prediction: Analysis & Stats

Last Saturday, England beat Panama 2-0 to top Group L and qualify for the knockout stages. Thomas Tuchel’s side delivered following a lacklustre 0-0 draw with Ghana.

The Three Lions now face DR Congo in the last 32, looking to preserve their 5-game unbeaten streak. DR Congo return to Atlanta, where they defeated Uzbekistan 3-1 to progress from Group K. The winners of this clash will play Mexico or Ecuador in the round of 16.

Will England Find Their Flow Against DR Congo?

After flat performances against Panama and Ghana, much of the initial England hype has faded at this tournament.

England struggled against Panama and Ghana’s low block defences, needing a 62nd-minute Jude Bellingham strike to break Panama’s resistance in their final group outing. England looked to be heading for second place in Group L before claiming a 2-0 win.

DR Congo will have noted how a disciplined low block stifled the England attack. Sebastien Desabre’s side held Portugal to a 1-1 draw in Group K, and their 5-3-2 formation will be tough to break down.

Tuchel’s team should dominate play. They average 65.9% possession (Opta), the second-highest at this tournament, while DR Congo average 39.6%, the 12th worst. DR Congo will sit deep and aim to spring quick counter-attacks with Yoane Wissa and Cedric Bakambu.

Opta stats reveal that England rank 5th in shots on target with 20 goal attempts, but 29th in shot conversion at 10.34%. So, they need to be more clinical in front of goal.

Main Markets To Focus On

Yet again, England are odds-on favourites to win. So, it makes sense to look at alternative markets.

You can back England to win at 1.29. Although DR Congo managed to score against Portugal, England have kept 2 clean sheets in a row, so I’m not confident in BTTS at 1.50 (William Hill). Indeed, 14 of England’s last 15 wins were to nil.

Declan Rice should return for England, adding extra protection against DR Congo counters. But the right-back position is an issue with Reece James ruled out.

The bookmakers offer odds of 1.91 (Betway) for under 2.5 goals and 1.91 (Bet365) for the over 2.5 line. So, it’s tough to predict if DR Congo can restrict England. The underdogs have just 1 win in their last 5 matches. But they’ve not lost by a 2-goal margin since August 2025 against Morocco.

Harry Kane is 1.80 to score (BetVictor). But according to Opta stats, Jude Bellingham has a superior goals vs xG (1.38 vs 0.91). Therefore, the 3.40 for Bellingham to score looks interesting.

Best Predictions for the Match

England will aim for a fresh start in the knockout phase. However, Tuchel will be concerned about their struggling wide forwards, stodgy play against low-block defences, and shaky defending against counter-attacks.

An over-reliance on Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham is cause for concern. But DR Congo, in their debut World Cup knockout game, lack experience at this level. So, I back England to win and under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 (Betfred). Besides the 4-2 Croatia win, England have struggled to score, making a low-scoring win seem likely.

My second selection is Jude Bellingham to score at 3.40 (Ladbrokes), with a 29% implied probability. He scored key second-half goals against Croatia and Panama, and can drift into pockets of pace to repeat the trick here.

Key Statistics

• England and DR Congo have never met in international football.
• DR Congo are playing at their second World Cup finals. They featured in the 1974 edition as Zaire.
• England have won both previous World Cup knockout matches against African opposition – Cameroon in 1990 and Senegal in 2022.
• FIFA 41st-ranked DR Congo conceded only 3 goals in 3 group K matches.
• England won 3 of their last 9 matches by a 2-0 scoreline.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players

England (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford – Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Nico O’Reilly – Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson – Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford.

Reece James (hamstring) is ruled out, while Jarell Quansah may not recover from his ankle injury against Panama.

DR Congo (5-3-2): Lionel Mpasi-Nzau – Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Chancel Mbemba, Axel Tuanzebe, Steve Kapuadi, Arthur Masuaku – Ngalayel Mukau, Samuel Moutoussamy, Noah Sadiki – Cedric Bakambu, Yoane Wissa.

DR Congo have no injuries or suspensions.

England To Outsmart Plucky DR Congo

England will deliver a professional performance to defeat DR Congo. The Three Lions will snuff out any DR Congo counter-attacks, as Jude Bellingham fires them to a narrow last-32 win.

*Odds are subject to change.

In case you are looking for more predictions, you can check out my World Cup Knockout Stage analysis to get the best value picks.