Belgium and USA In For Tough Workouts – Here’s The Value

The World Cup round of 32 features 2 more standout games from a betting perspective. Let’s break down the value picks from Belgium vs Senegal and USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina, as these 4 teams battle for a last 16 berth. You can also read my full England vs DR Congo preview for in-depth analysis, team news and my predictions.

Will Senegal Bring Belgium Back Down To Earth?

Belgium recovered from a nervy start to the tournament by thrashing New Zealand 5-1 to win Group G. The Red Devils now face Senegal, who demolished Iraq 5-0 to claim a best third-place slot from Group I. Going into this last-32 battle at Seattle Stadium, just 8 places separate the 10th-ranked Belgium and their African opponents. Were Belgium flattered by their latest 5-1 win against outsiders New Zealand? A physical Senegal could expose any weaknesses in Rudi Garcia’s lineup.

Key Statistics:

• This is the first-ever Belgium vs Senegal contest.
• Belgium kept only 1 clean sheet in Group G.
• Senegal scored 9 goals in 3 group matches, and both teams scored in 4 of their last 6.
• Belgium form: W-D-D-W-W.
• Senegal form: W-L-L-D-L.

Have The Bookies Overrated Belgium’s Chances?

Belgium are 2.15 (Betfred) favourites to defeat Senegal, with an implied probability of 47%. But the group stage suggests Senegal have a genuine chance. Although Senegal leaked 3+ goals in defeats to France (1-3) and Norway (2-3), they held their own against both. The Seranga Lions will be buoyed by their 5-goal victory against Iraq. The odds also do not reflect Belgium’s struggles for rhythm in draws against Egypt and Iran. So, at 8.0, Senegal to win with both teams scoring is the outsider value.

Elsewhere, Senegal’s Iliman Ndiaye is 7.0 (Coral) to provide an assist. He has 2 assists so far at this World Cup. Kevin De Bruyne had 16 goal attempts in the group stages, while Ismaila Sarr had 12. But those players are 1.60 (Coral) and 1.80 (Bet365), respectively, to have one or more shots on target.

Predictions:

• Senegal to win & both teams to score @ 8.0 (Betway) – Pape Thiaw’s team emerged from a ‘group of death’ and can outscore Belgium.
• Maxim De Cuyper 1+ shot on target @ 2.63 (Bet365) – According to Opta, the Belgium full-back has 5 SOT already, making this a smart alternative pick.

Free-scoring USA To Enjoy Home Comforts

Even after a last-gasp 3-2 loss to Turkey, Mauricio Pochettino’s USA still won Group D. The co-hosts thumped Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0 to book this showdown with Bosnia-Herzegovina in Santa Clara. The 61st-ranked Bosnians, the lowest-ranked European side still in the tournament, beat Qatar 3-1 to qualify as one of the best third-place teams. But they face a huge task against the home favourites.

Key Statistics:

• USA have won 2 of 3 matchups with Bosnia-Herzegovina, most recently a 1-0 victory in 2021.
• The United States netted 8 goals in 3 group D fixtures (2.66 per game).
• USA form: L-W-W-L-W.
• Bosnia-Herzegovina form: W-L-D-D-D.

Can Bosnia-Herzegovina Upset The Form Book?

The USA are 1.36 to win, with an implied probability of 74%. Looking at a higher potential return, USA to win to nil is 2.10 (Betway), but their defence has only 1 clean sheet in 10 matches. Instead, I see home advantage helping Pochettino’s side to score early. Bosnia have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 4 games. They only conceded late against Canada and Switzerland, but 7 of the USA’s 8 World Cup 2026 goals arrived in the first half. So, USA winning at half-time (odds of 1.80) is a logical pick.

Bosnia are dangerous from set pieces, but lack goalscoring threat in open play. According to Opta, they averaged 0.67 xG across their group stage games. So, this slick, technically superior USA team can dominate possession to claim a comfortable win.

Predictions:

• USA to be leading at half-time @ 1.80 (Betfred) – I’m backing USA to grab an early goal – but can they hold off a Bosnia comeback?
• Half-time/full-time Draw/USA @ 4.20 (William Hill) – If Bosnia’s low block defence frustrates USA’s early attacks.

Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws, my next £10 is a single bet at odds of 1.80. I think the USA can start quickly against Bosnia-Herzegovina’s ageing side. Will this pick beat the bookies?

My group stage round 3 double landed at 3.50, as Norway and France both scored, and Spain registered a clean sheet against Uruguay. Follow my selections as I go head-to-head with Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws.