USA’s big summer party set to carry on into the quarter-finals – Here’s how you can profit
The FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage is rolling on into the Round of 16, with the hosts back in action, albeit without their star striker, whilst Cristiano Ronaldo could be preparing for his final international appearance with Portugal. We break down Portugal’s meeting with Spain and USA vs Belgium.
Can Portugal overcome the odds against the European Champions?
It’s become clear that Cristiano Ronaldo will be starting every game for Portugal at this World Cup. The question remains as to just how many more matches that will entail. Spain are the next team up for Roberto Martinez’s side in an all-Iberian clash in Dallas, and La Roja are the favourites heading into the clash. Portugal’s attacking play has shone at times this tournament, but Ronaldo’s presence limits his teammates. However, for the big moments, there isn’t anyone you’d have over the 41-year-old.
Key Statistics:
- Four of the last six meetings between Portugal and Spain have ended in draws.
- Cristiano Ronaldo’s only World Cup hat-trick came against Spain in 2018.
- Portugal have never won two knockout matches inside 90 minutes at a single World Cup before.
Predicted Lineups and Absences:
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa – Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes – Vitinha, J. Neves – B. Fernandes, Neto, Leao – Ronaldo.
Out: None.
Spain (4-3-3): Simon – Llorente, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella – Pedri, Rodri, Olmo – Yamal, Baena, Oyarzabal.
Out: None.
Can you profit by backing Portugal?
Betway are offering odds of 3.80 for Portugal to win, with an implied probability of just 26%. This suggests that Ronaldo and company aren’t expected to be able to overcome Spain in 120 minutes of football. La Roja are 1.88 to win, which has a probability of 53%. There is the option of tipping Portugal to qualify, which Betway are offering at 2.63, with penalties seeming like their best chance of getting through to the quarter-final. Both teams to score at 1.78 is also a decent opportunity, although both Portugal and Spain are the joint 11th highest scorers at the tournament.
Predictions:
- Spain to win and both teams to score @ 3.80 with Betway – There is a lot of attacking talent on the pitch, but Portugal don’t appear strong enough to outscore La Roja.
- Mikel Oyarzabal to score the first goal @ 4.50 with Betway – Oyarzabal perfectly fits into this Spain team and is in great form with four goals at the tournament so far.
| Prediction | Bet £10 Get £30 + 100% Boost Token | Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets |
| Spain to win and both teams to score | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal to score the first goal | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Are the USA capable of winning without Balogun?
Mauricio Pochettino’s USA team have been one of the best sides at the tournament. Boosted by fervent home support, the USMNT has outplayed everyone’s expectations of their ceiling this summer. However, their biggest attacking talent, Folarin Balogun, is suspended for their upcoming clash with Belgium. The European side were the beneficiary of one of World Cup history’s biggest chokes as Senegal surrendered a 2-0 lead with mere minutes to go. Belgium aren’t a good side, and with Balogun, there would be very little reason to bet against the hosts.
Key Statistics:
- Belgium have won six out of seven matches against the United States dating back to 1930.
- Folarin Balogun has scored three goals this tournament, which is 30% of the USA’s total.
- No team has completed more sprints than Belgium at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Predicted Lineups and Absences:
USA (3-4-2-1): Freese – Freeman, Ream, Richards – Dest, Adams, Tillman, A. Robinson – McKennie, Pulisic – Pepi.
Out: Balogun (Suspended).
Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois – Meunier, Mechele, Theate, Castagne – Tielemans, Raskin – De Bruyne, Doku, Trossard – Lukaku.
Out: Debast (Hamstring).
Can Belgium find any confidence?
It was one of the worst performances from any team at the 2026 World Cup, yet Belgium were somehow able to overcome Senegal. You’d imagine the USA will not be as forgiving in Seattle. Interestingly, Betway don’t agree. They are offering odds of 2.50 on Belgium to win, which carries an implied probability of 40%. The odds of 2.70 for USA to win suggest the bookmakers feel the teams are fairly well matched. That’s surprising. There has been nothing shown in this tournament to say Belgium can match the USA, especially with the home crowd likely to be behind them.
Predictions:
- USA to win to nil @ 5.25 with Betway – I think the USA will blow Belgium away. A shock win against Senegal doesn’t fix their problems, and the hosts are playing some beautiful football.
- Christian Pulisic to score at any time @ 2.63 with Betway – Pulisic will be the USA’s main point of attack in Balogun’s absence, and he’s looked sharp since the opening match.
| Prediction | Bet £10 Get £30 + 100% Boost Token | Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets |
| USA to win to nil | 4.70 | 5.50 |
| Christian Pulisic to score at any time | 2.86 | 3.20 |
Battle of the Ws
For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a double bet in the Spain and Portugal tie. I like Spain to win and both teams to score @ 3.80. I’ve fallen quite far behind Russell in this competition and will require something special to stay in the hunt as we near the quarter-final stage.
Will this pick be the start of a dream comeback? Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.
No comments added yet. Be the first!