Argentina Set To Light Up Last 16 – Top Value Picks

The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 continues with the defending champions, led by Lionel Messi, eyeing a quarter-final spot. European fortitude meets South American flair in the other clash. We break down Argentina’s match against Egypt and Switzerland vs Colombia.

Can Egypt Upset The Defending Champions?

Argentina arrive in the World Cup Round of 16 after a pulsating extra-time triumph over Cape Verde. La Selección have relied on Lionel Messi’s genius to score 7 of their 11 WC2026 goals. Lionel Scaloni’s team now square off against Egypt, who are making their debut in the last-16 of the World Cup. Can reigning world champions Argentina thrive under the Atlanta Stadium roof, or will Egypt march into the quarter-finals?

Key Statistics:

• Argentina defeated Egypt 2-0 in their only head-to-head in 2008.
• Lionel Messi has scored 7 goals off 4.01 xG and 15 shots on target at WC2026.
• Egypt have zero clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
• Average xG/xGA per match (Opta): Argentina 2.0/0.52, Egypt 1.28/1.35.
• Argentina form: W-W-W-W-W (including extra-time).
• Egypt form: W-D-W-D-L (including extra-time and penalties).

Is There Any Value In Backing Egypt?

At odds of 9.50 (Betfred), Egypt to win has an implied probability of 11%. Argentina at 1.40 (Betway), a 71% implied chance, are huge favourites. Egypt needed penalties to defeat Australia in the Round of 32, and have conceded in all 4 WC2026 matches. That said, Cape Verde breached the Argentine defence twice, so Argentina winning with Egypt also scoring could make sense at odds of 4.0. Egypt had 62 shots on goal across 4 matches, but converted only 9.68% (compared to Argentina’s 19.64%), showing their limitations. I pick Messi to score at 1.80, as his clinical finishing decides this contest. Argentina’s other striker, Lautaro Martinez, has just 1 goal at this tournament and is 2.45 to score (BetVictor).

Predictions:

• Argentina to win and both teams to score @ 4.0 (Bet365) – A Salah and Marmoush frontline gives Egypt hope, but Argentina’s class will prevail.
• Messi to score anytime @ 1.80 (Betvictor) – Messi can score in a ninth consecutive World Cup match, leading Argentina into the last-8.

*Odds are subject to change.

Switzerland or Colombia – Who Will Extend Their Unbeaten Run?

Switzerland meet Colombia in an intriguing Round of 16 clash. Murat Yakin’s Switzerland are riding a 3-match winning run after beating Algeria 2-0 in the last-32, but now face a solid Colombia side. The Colombians, unbeaten in 6 matches (W5 D1), reached the last-16 for a fourth straight World Cup finals with a professional 1-0 win over Ghana. Nestor Lorenzo’s men are favourites to advance to the quarter-finals after a tense encounter at BC Place Vancouver.

Key Statistics:

• Colombia have won 2 of 4 H2Hs against Switzerland.
• Switzerland recorded 1 clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
• Colombia have kept 3 clean sheets in a row.
• Average xG/xGA per match (Opta): Switzerland 2.21/0.83, Colombia 1.62/0.68.
• Switzerland form: W-W-W-D-D.
• Colombia form: W-D-W-W-W.

Who Can Produce A Match-Winning Performance In This Match?

Switzerland are 3.50 (Bet365) underdogs to beat Colombia, with an implied probability of 29%. The Red Crosses have 3 straight wins and boast solid xG stats. However, FIFA 11th-ranked Colombia are a step up in class. They have conceded just 1 goal and faced 5 shots on target in 4 matches, compared to Switzerland’s 15 SOTs faced. At 1.57 (Betway), the under 2.5 goals line suggests a tight contest. Interestingly, 4 of Colombia’s 5 WC2026 goals arrived after the 40th minute. I like Luis Diaz to score at odds of 3.30 (Coral). He’s had 16 shots at this tournament and is a constant attacking threat. Alternatively, Switzerland’s Johan Manzambi has 3 goals off 0.77 xG and is 5.0 (William Hill) to score anytime.

Predictions:

• Colombia to win by 1 goal @ 3.75 (Bet365) – 4 of Los Cafeteros’ last 8 wins were by 1 goal. They can grind out another win to make the quarter-finals.
• Ricardo Rodriguez to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.80 (William Hill) – The Switzerland left-back made 9 fouls in 4 matches against inferior opposition.

*Odds are subject to change.

Battle of the Ws

For this round, I will place my £10 on a single bet in the Argentina vs Egypt match. I’m backing Lionel Messi to score a goal at 1.80 because Argentina’s main man is motivated to win the Golden Boot. But my previous double bet lost on Argentina to win & under 3.5 goals against Cape Verde.

Will I extend my lead in the World Cup prediction challenge? Follow my progress versus Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws.