Argentina and Colombia Lead The South American Charge – Here’s How To Profit

The FIFA World Cup Round of 32 heats up with 3 standout matches in the betting markets. We analyse the stats and value picks from Australia vs Egypt, Argentina against Cape Verde, and Colombia vs Ghana.

Can Australia Outhustle Injury-Hit Egypt

Australia will face Egypt in the Round of 32 after both teams finished second in their groups. The Socceroos claimed 4 points from Group D, including a shock 2-0 win over Turkey and a clinical 0-0 draw against Paraguay to qualify. Meanwhile, Egypt went unbeaten in Group G, including a creditable 1-1 against 10th-ranked Belgium. The Pharaohs are seeking a maiden last 16 berth, while Australia look to mimic their World Cup 2022 last 16 showing.

Key Statistics:

• Australia and Egypt have met twice before: Egypt won 3-0 in 2010 and drew 0-0 in 1987.
• Egypt drew 2 out of their 3 group matches, while Australia scored just twice in 3 group fixtures.
• Australia form: D-L-W-D-L.
• Egypt form: D-W-D-L-W.

Where Is The Value in Australia vs Egypt?

Egypt are 2.50 (Bet365) favourites to win, a 40% implied chance. But a second consecutive draw for both teams (2.90 Betway) looks the standout pick. The Aussies have played 5 times in 2026, scoring 3 goals and leaking just 4. Tony Popovich favours a cautious 5-4-1 setup, and they lack creativity in the final third. Egypt have scored just 7 times in their last 6 outings and have several injury concerns. The Pharaohs could be without talisman Mohamed Salah and were lucky to draw 1-1 against Iran last time out. So, the market has priced in a low-scoring encounter. Under 2.5 goals is just 1.44 (Bet365), and both teams to score is 1.67 (William Hill).

Predictions:

• Match result draw @ 3.0 (Betfred) – Both teams’ low-scoring stats and the Round of 32 tension make this a strong play.
• Correct score Egypt 1-0 @ 6.50 (Betfred) – Egypt could snatch a narrow win against Australia’s blunt attack.

Will Cape Verde Stop Imperious Messi?

Defending champions Argentina face Cape Verde in the last 32 at Miami Stadium. Argentina won Group J with a perfect record as Lionel Messi scored 6 of their 8 goals. Messi made history in the final group game against Jordan, scoring in a seventh consecutive World Cup game. Cape Verde secured second spot in Group H with a 0-0 against Saudi Arabia, defying the pre-tournament odds. Can they produce a seismic shock and advance to the last 16?

Key Statistics:

• This is the first international match between Argentina and Cape Verde.
• Argentina won 4 of their last 5 games to nil, bagging 13 goals.
• Argentina form: W-W-W-W-W.
• Cape Verde form: D-D-D-W-W.

Can Cape Verde Cause Another Massive Shock?

At 1.17 (Coral), the market gives Argentina an 86% implied probability of winning. But Cape Verde kept clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia, and only conceded twice to Uruguay. The Blue Sharks averaged 0.67 xGA in those matches, while Argentina created 1.92 on average in Group J. So, I prefer an Argentina victory with under 4 goals. The evergreen Lionel Messi can help La Albiceleste extend their 12-game winning run, as they ease into the last 16.

Predictions:

• Argentina to win & under 3.5 goals @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) – The group stage xG stats and Cape Verde’s resilient defence make this the smart play.
• Argentina correct score 2-0 @ 6.0 (Betfred) – 2 of Argentina’s last 5 wins came by a 2-0 scoreline.

Colombia vs Ghana – Control Meets Defence

Colombia claimed top spot in Group K after a 0-0 draw with Portugal. Los Cafeteros scored 4 times and conceded once in 3 efficient first-phase performances. As Group K winners, they now face Group L’s third-place finishers, Ghana, at Kansas City Stadium. Ghana have averaged just 35.3% possession (Opta stats), amongst the bottom 10 at this tournament, so Colombia are expected to dominate the ball since they average 59.8% possession. Switzerland or Algeria await the victors in the last 16.

Key Statistics:

• Colombia and Ghana have no previous head-to-head history.
• Colombia conceded 1 goal in 3 group matches.
• Ghana have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches.
• Colombia form: D-W-W-W-W.
• Ghana form: L-D-W-D-L.

Are Colombia Worthy Favourites?

Colombia are 1.53 (Bet365) favourites to win, a 65% implied chance. But the Colombians may need patience to dissect a solid Ghana. The Black Stars opened this tournament with 2 clean sheets, including a 0-0 against England, although Croatia did score 2 last time out. This looks like a razor-tight match, perhaps decided by a flash of Colombian quality. I cannot see standout value in under 2.5 goals at 1.67 (Bet365) or both teams to score “no” at 1.62 (William Hill). Likewise, with anytime goalscorer odds of 2.62 (William Hill) for Luis Suarez and 2.70 (Coral) for Luis Diaz. I prefer Daniel Muñoz’s right-flank raids to muster 1+ shots on target (at 2.75 – a 36% implied probability).

Predictions:

• Colombia to win by 1 goal @ 3.40 (Bet365) – 3 of Ghana’s last 5 defeats were by 1 goal, and Colombia defeated a similar DR Congo 1-0.
• Daniel Muñoz to take a shot on target @ 2.75 (Betway) – The Colombian right-back scored twice in Group K and is a constant attacking danger.

Battle of the Ws

This time, my £10 is on a double bet at odds of 5.49. I’ve gone for Australia and Egypt to draw in a cagey encounter. Plus, Argentina to win & under 3.5 goals vs Cape Verde, as Messi and co are too experienced for the Blue Sharks.

My recent winning picks included Brazil to win & under 2.5 goals vs Japan with Netherlands-Morocco BTTS @ 5.18. Will my latest predictions come in and enhance my Virtual Points total? Follow my progress against Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws.