Argentina and Portugal are on a collision course – Here’s how to beat the odds

Matchdays 17 and 18 of the FIFA World Cup Group Stage see both Argentina and Portugal in with a chance of topping their groups, thus setting both teams on a direct collision course in the knockout stage.

We break down Argentina vs Jordan and Colombia vs Portugal. Rapid pick value bets will be discussed for the remaining fixtures on those days. A more detailed preview and set of predictions for Panama vs England can be found here.

Will Colombia represent a reality check for Cristiano Ronaldo?

Cristiano Ronaldo’s relief was palpable when he screamed ‘I’m back!’ down the camera after his brace against Uzbekistan on Tuesday. However, he will now turn his attention to facing Colombia and potentially winning Group K.

Portugal has a team stacked full of stars, but there is a feeling that Ronaldo starting games actually hinders the team. Colombia are far stronger than both DR Congo and Uzbekistan, and could shine a sharp light on Ronaldo’s weaknesses.

Key Statistics:

• Portugal and Colombia have never faced each other before.
• Cristiano Ronaldo has only scored in more than one match at a World Cup on one occasion, having played in six tournaments.
• Ronaldo has never scored against a South American nation in a competitive fixture.
• Colombia’s average ball recovery time at the 2026 World Cup is only 23.85 seconds.

Are the bookmakers wrong to place Portugal as such strong favourites?

Betway are offering odds of 1.85 for Portugal to defeat Colombia, which holds an implied probability of 54%. These odds are really strong in favour of the European side, but I think there is an opportunity for you to make the bookmakers look silly.

Cristiano Ronaldo has always struggled at World Cups, and he’s been on a physical decline since moving to Saudi Arabia. You can see he can’t necessarily counterattack alongside his Portugal teammates; he’s not quick enough, whilst he’s too involved in build-up play to be a phenom in the box like Messi and Harry Kane have been. Colombia are so good at putting defensive pressure on the ball, they could crowd Ronaldo out.

Predictions:

• Colombia to win @ 3.75 with Betway – Colombia are defensively strong and have pace on the counter.
• Under 2.5 total goals @ 1.75 with Betway – Colombia will top the group with a draw, and are strong at the back. They could strangle Ronaldo’s effectiveness.

*Odds are subject to change.

Does Jordan have any hope of halting the Lionel Messi locomotive?

Lionel Messi has been sensational in this World Cup so far, scoring all of Argentina’s five goals. He’s now the All-time World Cup goals record holder and is finding playing for his national team a surprisingly relaxing experience.

The weakest team in Group J are next up with Jordan hoping to find a way of stopping Messi, but their defensive record this tournament isn’t encouraging.

Key Statistics:

• Jordan are allowing an average of 1.79 xG per match at the 2026 World Cup, according to footystats.org.
• Jordan hasn’t kept a clean sheet since the FIFA Arab Cup semi-final in December 2025.
• Lionel Messi has scored in every group stage match at a World Cup once before (Brazil 2014).

How can you back Messi all the way to a profit?

As you’d expect, the odds are in favour of Argentina defeating Jordan comfortably, even if Lionel Scaloni has already confirmed he will be making wholesale changes to his XI.

Messi will certainly be involved, however, so backing Argentina to win @ 1.18 with Betway probably isn’t worth your time on its own. There will be pace around Messi with Julian Alvarez coming into the side, giving Jordan’s defence simply too much to think about. I think there will be goals here, especially with Messi having a 61.5% shot accuracy rate this tournament.

Predictions:

• Argentina to win and score over 2.5 goals with Lionel Messi to score at any time @ 2.25 with Betway – Messi is unstoppable right now, whilst those around him are looking to impress and stake a claim to a starting spot in the KO phase.

*Odds are subject to change.

Rapid Picks: Other Key Matches

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a triple bet in the Jordan vs Argentina game. I really like my selection of Argentina to win, score over 2.5 goals and Messi as an anytime scorer @ 2.25 with Betway. Will this pick allow me to chew into Russell’s lead, with my last couple of tips going awry?

England and Harry Kane let me down, whilst Morocco and Brazil couldn’t get the job done. Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.