Brazil and Morocco need goals after a slow start – Here’s how to benefit

Three matches look especially enticing as we head into matchdays 8, 9 and 10 of the World Cup group stage. We break down Scotland vs Morocco, Brazil vs Haiti and Mexico vs South Korea. Rapid-pick value bets will be discussed for the remaining games on those days.

Are Morocco able to score over 2.5 goals against Scotland?

Morocco started their campaign off with a decent result in their 1-1 draw with Brazil. Whilst both teams seemed happy enough with the draw in their toughest group game, the onus is now on the African champions to score some goals. Scotland kept a clean sheet against Haiti, but the minnows definitely tested the Tartan Army. Morocco have history on their side with their last meeting with Scotland coming in the 1998 World Cup, where they won 3-0.

Key Statistics:

• Morocco haven’t failed to score since a 1-0 defeat to Senegal on January 18. *Result was later overturned to a 3-0 win*.
• Scotland have only won twice against African nations in competitive matches.
• Morocco form: W-W-W-D-D
• Scotland form: L-L-W-W-W

Will Morocco upset the odds with their forward line?

Betway are offering odds of 4.20 for Morocco to both win and score over 2.5 goals against Scotland, which provides an implied probability of 23.8%. It’s clear that this isn’t seen as a likely outcome, but that is surprising given the attacking talent the African team has. Ismael Saibari scored a stunningly deft lob against Brazil and is about to sign for Bayern Munich, whilst Brahim Diaz is experienced in LaLiga and Serie A. Scotland also allowed Haiti an xG of 1.21 according to Opta, as well as 15 shots. That’s an unsustainable level of defending.

Predictions:

• Morocco to win and to score over 2.5 goals @ 4.20 with Betway – Morocco have flair attackers, whilst Scotland seem to invite pressure on their defence.

*Odds are subject to change.

Can Brazil prove doubters wrong by scoring over 3.5 goals?

Brazil were functional, at best, in their 1-1 draw with Morocco. Concerns about how open the Selecao are through the middle of the pitch haven’t disappeared, but there was also a distinct like of flair in their performance. Having been seen as one of the traditional ‘big-hitters’ prior to the tournament, Carlo Ancelotti needs to find a way to unlock his talented forward line. It’s interesting to note that Brazil haven’t scored more than four goals in a World Cup game since a 5-2 win over Costa Rica in 2002.

Key Statistics:

• Over their last 15 games at World Cups, Brazil have averaged only 1.4 goals per game.
• Brazil have faced Haiti three times since 1974, winning every game with an average of 5.7 goals per game.
• Haiti’s last competitive fixture against Brazil ended in a 7-1 defeat.

Should you be wary of this Brazil side?

At 2.30, the implied probability for Brazil to score more than 3.5 goals against Haiti is 43.5%. This is just under 50/50, which is remarkably favourable, although should you be wary of this Brazil side? On paper, they should absolutely be able to score at will against Haiti, but there are a lot of question marks. Carlo Ancelotti doesn’t yet know his best forward line and is unlikely to bow to supporter pressure to start Endrick. There is also huge pressure on Brazil from its own fans in World Cup tournaments. Since 1982, Brazil have only failed to win their opening group game on two occasions (2018 and 2026). On the first occasion, they won the next game 2-0.

Predictions:

• Brazil to score over 3.5 goals @ 2.30 with Betway – Haiti’s defence is really weak, Scotland exposed them a couple of times. Brazil have far better players in attack than the Scots.
• Raphinha to score anytime @ 1.91 with Betway – Raphinha has been consistent with Barcelona and will want to bounce back against Haiti. The defence may focus too much on Vinicius Jr and leave Raphinha space.

*Odds are subject to change.

Can South Korea stop Mexico scoring?

Mexico got their home World Cup off to a perfect start with a 2-0 win over South Africa, and they have a lot of confidence heading into a second group clash with South Korea. The Asian side also were victorious against Czechia, but were far less convincing. Mexico are the clear favourites and will have the crowd behind them, as well as a red-hot Raul Jimenez. South Korea aren’t the best defensively, and this match could prove a unique test for them.

Key Statistics:

• South Korea have conceded 11 goals in their last four matches against Mexico.
• South Korea’s last clean sheet against Mexico in competitive football came back in January 2002.
• Mexico and South Korea have faced each other twice at World Cups: Mexico have won both matches with an aggregate scoreline of 5-2.

Why do the odds have such a hard time envisioning a South Korean clean sheet?

At 3.40 for South Korea to keep a clean sheet, there is an implied probability of 29.4%. The bookies simply don’t see the Asian side stopping Mexico from scoring. Their record against El-Tri is poor, especially in terms of conceding goals, but it’s worth noting that this South Korean side has conceded just one goal in their last five matches. There is the possibility that the Koreans upset the odds here. Both teams to score at 2.10 may be a safer investment.

Predictions:

• Mexico to win and score over 1.5 goals @ 2.62 with Betway – Mexico are supremely confident, playing on home soil and can put South Korea’s defence under more pressure than other recent opponents.
• Raul Jimenez to score anytime @ 2.75 with Betway – Raul Jimenez scored in the opener against South Africa, and his movement looked really sharp. He’s on fire right now.

*Odds are subject to change.

Rapid Picks: Other Key Matches

The Battle of the Ws

My last £10 double @ 3.24 landed in style, with Germany to win and score over 3.5 goals against Curaçao and Sweden to beat Tunisia both coming through. That winning start boosted my virtual bankroll to VP 122.40.

For this round of the Battle of the Ws, I’m backing another £10 double. I’m taking Raphinha to score anytime against Haiti @ 1.91 and Morocco to win and to score over 2.5 goals against Scotland @ 4.20. The combined odds for the double are 8.02. Will these picks pay off and keep my 100% record intact against Russell Wingham?