Brazil and Morocco Head The Value In High-Scoring Last 32 Battles

The FIFA World Cup last 32 kicks off with 4 mouthwatering fixtures. First up, we preview the historical clash between South Africa and Canada, followed by 5-times World Cup winners Brazil vs Japan and the Netherlands vs Morocco. Which teams will progress to the round of 16?

History Makers South Africa and Canada Shoot For The Last 16

Both South Africa and Canada have reached the World Cup knockout stage for the first time. South Africa ended the group rounds by shocking South Korea 1-0 to land the runners-up spot in Group A. Meanwhile, co-hosts Canada finished second in Group B after losing 2-1 to Switzerland. So, they will not enjoy home advantage in this Los Angeles Stadium clash.

Key Statistics:

• These 2 sides have played once, with South Africa winning 2-0 in 2007.
• South Africa created an average xG of 1.25 (Opta) in their final 2 group games. Besides their 6-0 victory over Qatar, Canada averaged 1.30 xG (Opta).
• Canada and South Africa conceded just 3 goals each in the group phase.
• South Africa form: W-D-L-D-D.
• Canada form: L-W-D-D-W.

Are The Oddsmakers Wrong To Consider Canada As Favourites?

At 1.75 (Bet365), Canada are given a 57% implied chance to beat South Africa. But both teams could struggle to open up in their maiden knockout phase match, so I like the draw at 3.60, a 28% chance. Canada now lack home advantage, so expect a cagey match where a pair of solid defences sees under 2.5 goals (1.67 at Bet365). Plus, South Africa scored just 2 goals in 3 group games. Canada, besides their 6-0 win over Qatar, only mustered 2 goals against Bosnia and Switzerland. So, I can see the combined lack of attacking power producing a draw, then extra time or even a penalty shootout. Therefore, South Africa to qualify at 3.25 (29% implied probability) looks the value over Canada at 1.33.

Predictions:

• Match result draw @ 3.60 (Betway) – First-time knockout stage nerves can leave this game all-square.
• South Africa to qualify @ 3.50 (Bet365) – Bafana Bafana will try to stifle Canada and snatch a win in extra time or via penalties.

Will Japan Stop Brazil and Vinicius Junior?

But Vinicius Junior has been in sensational form for Brazil, with 4 goals in 3 appearances. Now, free-scoring Brazil face Group F runners-up Japan in this last 32 match in Houston. Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazilians eased through Group C, posting 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland after an opening 1-1 draw with Morocco. Japan’s intensity and proactive play sent them unbeaten through a tough Group F. Can the Samurai Blue claim a second successive win against Brazil, or will the Brazilians restore their head-to-head dominance?

Key Statistics:

• Brazil won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs, scoring over 2.5 goals on 3 occasions. However, Japan claimed a 3-2 win in October 2025, their only victory against Brazil.
• Brazil have won their group at 12 consecutive World Cups, going back to 1982.
• Japan have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 12 World Cup matches.
• Brazil form: W-W-D-W-W.
• Japan form: D-W-D-W-W.

Can Japan Overcome Brazil’s Favourites Tag?

At 1.73 (Coral), or 58% implied probability, Brazil are favoured to defeat Japan. But Japan won the latest head-to-head and will be no pushovers. However, an experienced spine of Allison, Marquinhos, and Casemiro can see Brazil winning and 3+ goals at 2.88, a 35% implied probability.

I think goals are likely since Brazil scored 15 in their last 5 matches, and went 6 games without a clean sheet before playing Haiti. Hajime Moriyasu’s Japan scored 7 goals in Group F, and their poor World Cup defensive stats suggest they’ll struggle to contain a confident Brazil attack. You can back Vinicius Junior to score at 2.63 (Bet365), but I prefer Brazil’s main central attacker, Matheus Cunha, at a bigger-priced 3.40.

Predictions:

• Brazil to win and over 2.5 goals @ 2.88 (Ladbrokes) – Two high-scoring teams will produce a classic, as Brazil’s class prevails.
• Matheus Cunha to score anytime @ 3.40 (Bet365) – Cunha can outshine Vinicius Junior to net his fourth World Cup 2026 goal.

Can Morocco Show Their World Cup Experience?

The Netherlands meet Morocco in a standout last-32 match at Estadio Monterrey. The Dutch booked their last 32 place with a 100% record in Group F. Group C runners-up Morocco also emerged from the group phase undefeated. Mohamed Ouahbi’s team dispatched Scotland (1-0) and Haiti (4-2) on their way to the last 32, and now take the next step towards matching their last-4 performance at Qatar 2022.

Key Statistics:

• Netherlands hold a narrow 2-1 lead in 3 previous H2Hs. Both teams scored in each game.
• Morocco are riding a 40-game unbeaten streak.
• The Dutch conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Netherlands Form: W-W-D-W-L.
• Morocco form: W-W-D-D-W.

Are Morocco Underrated In The Markets?

At 2.10 to win (BetVictor), the Netherlands are given a 48 % implied chance to beat Morocco. Yet, the markets overlook FIFA 7th-ranked Morocco, which drew 1-1 with Brazil in Group C. In a potentially open game, both teams to score at 1.80, a 56% implied probability, looks underrated based on the Netherlands’ tendency to concede.

Other interesting options include Morocco Draw no bet at 2.62 (William Hill) and Morocco to qualify at 2.40 (Ladbrokes). But ultimately, I cannot ignore 6.50 for Morocco to win with over 2.5 goals. The Atlas Lions have a battle-hardened lineup, with Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Diaz (2 WC2026 assists), and Ismael Saibari (3 goals so far) posing enough attacking threat to produce the upset.

Predictions:

• Morocco to win & over 2.5 goals @ 6.50 (Betfred) – Morocco’s fluid attacks can edge a free-flowing match.
• Both teams to score @ 1.80 (Betfred) – Both teams are vulnerable to leaking goals, especially during quick transitions.

Battle of the Ws

To start the round of 32, I will place my £10 on a double bet at odds of 5.18. I’m backing Brazil to beat Japan & over 2.5 goals @ 2.88, plus Netherlands vs Morocco BTTS @ 1.80. I think Carlo Ancelotti’s tactical nous and Brazil’s experience will overcome Japan, while Morocco and the Netherlands will produce goals in a high-octane match. Will these picks pay off? Follow my results against Chris Winterburn in the Battle of the Ws.