World Cup Dark Horses: Who Will Be the Surprise Package?

The 2026 World Cup is now just days away. Mexico and South Africa will kick off the tournament in Mexico City on the 11th of June. The final will take place on the 19th of July at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Mexico are one of three hosts, alongside the USA and Canada. However, despite home advantage for much of the tournament, they are ranked a 70/1 shot to win the World Cup for the first time.

South Africa are available at even bigger odds to win the World Cup. Bookies offer massive odds of 1,250/1 on Bafana Bafana lifting the cup. The oddsmakers only deem nine nations less likely to win the World Cup.

The favourites include many of the usual suspects. Spain and France lead the way at odds of 5/1 and 6/1, respectively. Punters can back England at 8/1, Portugal at 9/1, or South American heavyweights Argentina and Brazil at 10/1. But if you prefer more bang for your buck, which outsiders should you consider?

No True Underdog Has Won the World Cup

Before we consider some World Cup dark horses, it is worth pointing out that this competition has never been won by a big outsider. We have seen surprises in the Euros in the past. Most notably, Greece won in 2004 when the bookies had priced them at 150/1. Additionally, Denmark triumphed in 1992. The Danes had not even qualified for the tournament but gained entry after Yugoslavia were disqualified. That should show us that anything is possible.

However, having said that, a major surprise is yet to materialise at the World Cup. Indeed, rarely have we even seen an unfancied nation make it to the final. Croatia were not among the favourites in 2018. But they were a class act, with world-class players such as Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic in their squad.

Consequently, while we believe the following teams might do very well, we are not making any bold predictions about them winning the 2026 World Cup. Those having a punt, however, may consider them in alternative markets. “To reach the semis” is one relevant market you might want to consider. Alternatively, you could be more cautious still and back a side to reach the quarter-finals.

Indeed, over the years, many underdogs have made the last eight. Moreover, the last time the World Cup was played in North America, both Bulgaria and Sweden made the semis. More recently, Morocco made the last four in 2022. Additionally, Costa Rica were surprise quarter-finalists in 2014, with Ghana and Paraguay reaching the same stage in 2010.

Group I Dark Horses Set to Overperform

With 48 teams at the World Cup, there are going to be more matches than ever before. There will be some upsets along the way. Two of the teams we think could be dark horses are drawn together in the Group of Death. Norway and Senegal join France and Iraq in Group I, and we think the first three nations will all qualify for the last 32.

Norway are 4/1 to make the semis, with Senegal priced at odds of 20/1. That duo are 35/1 and 130/1, respectively, to win the World Cup. Alternatively, they are 12/5 and 7/1 to make the last eight.

Bookmakers have slashed the price on Norway since they stormed to qualification at the top of UEFA Group I. They finished six points clear of Italy. Moreover, they boasted a goal difference of +32 and thrashed the Italians by three goals both at home and away. In Erling Haaland, they have a world-class striker. Games are often settled by slim margins at the World Cup and if Haaland takes the chances that come his way, they could build some serious momentum.

Norway also have Alexander Sorloth of Atletico Madrid and Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard, their captain. The weather could be an issue for them, but they have a decent supporting cast and could spring a surprise.

Heat and Humidity Worse for Some than Others

The weather will be less of an issue for their Group I rivals, Senegal. They will likely handle the heat as well as any side. Additionally, they also have decent squad depth, so will be able to make substitutions without sacrificing too much quality. They possess experience aplenty but youth too and have some excellent footballers in all areas of the pitch.

If Nicolas Jackson packs his scoring boots, Senegal could definitely make the last eight. And if old warriors like Kalidou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gueye and Sadio Mane manage the temperatures and frequent games well, they could even go further.

Japan: Another Dark Horse to Consider

Japan face the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia in Group F. If they manage to top that group, the draw really opens up nicely for them. They would face a possible last-32 clash with Morocco or Scotland, then the runner-up of either Group A or Group B in the round of 16. Those are two of the weaker groups, so if they can win Group F, a place in the last eight looks highly achievable. And remember, they won their group in Qatar, ahead of Germany and Spain!

One factor that helped them then will once again be in their favour here: the heat and humidity. Japan’s summers are among the hottest and most humid in the world. Moreover, their players are among the fittest. Japanese football is as good as it has ever been right now.

Although injuries have not helped them, Samurai Blue beat England in March. They have made the last 16 four times this century and can go one round better at least in 2026. The bookies offer odds of 4/1 that they make the quarter-finals. But how about 10/1 for the semis?

Ecuador’s Youthful Energy Makes Them a Threat

Our last selection for an underdog to look out for is Ecuador. They have the second-youngest squad at the tournament. Their average age of just 25.58 should mean they have energy aplenty, and in sapping conditions that could be key. Any side with the brilliant Moises Caicedo in it will be hard to play against. The Chelsea man is helped by several other class players, including Champions League finalists Piero Hincapie and PSG’s excellent William Pacho.

Caicedo and co are in Group E with Germany, Ivory Coast and minnows Curacao. Neither Germany nor the Ivory Coast are as strong as they have been in the past. Ecuador could win the group. However, they might prefer to finish second to avoid a probable meeting with France in the last 16. That said, finish second and it could be Brazil. The draw has not been kind to Sebastián Beccacece’s men. Even so, we don’t see them conceding many goals, so they could cause a surprise if fortune goes their way.