Top Four in FIFA Rankings Make Semis: Is this the Best Last Four Ever?

England and Argentina needed extra time to qualify for the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup. France secured their place in the last four with relative ease. But Spain needed a late goal to see off Belgium. However they got there, the fact is that the four best teams in the world have made it through to the semi-finals.

Fans of Brazil, Portugal, Morocco and perhaps other nations, such as Germany, Norway and Belgium, may dispute that. But most supporters and pundits would agree that this year’s final four are the top four teams in international football.

This is a view backed up by the current FIFA rankings (with France first, followed by Argentina, Spain and England). Indeed, it is also supported by the pre-tournament rankings. Additionally, before the tournament kicked off in North America, the remaining teams were the top four in the betting. In the World Cup ante-post market, France were favourites. Next came Spain, with England third favourites just ahead of Argentina.

Some supporters believe that refereeing decisions have favoured the Big Four. Conspiracy theorists can make a reasonable case for the idea that Lionel Messi’s Argentina in particular and England too have benefited from some big decisions. However, we do not believe that FIFA has demanded this. Moreover, we do believe that the four nations remaining are the very best.

Current Big Four Have Delivered

We can make a strong argument for the four semi-finalists being the best in the world based on the reasons already given. However, they have been performing consistently well over a long period too. Recent tournament results for the brilliant quartet are below:

• France – semi-finals at Euro 2024, runners-up at the 2022 World Cup, round of 16 at Euro 2020, champions at the 2018 World Cup, runners-up at Euro 2016.
• Spain – champions at Euro 2024, round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup, semi-finals at Euro 2020, round of 16 2018 World Cup, round of 16 Euro 2016
• England – runners-up at Euro 2024, quarter-finals at the 2022 World Cup, runners-up at Euro 2020, semi-finals at the 2018 World Cup, round of 16 at Euro 2016
• Argentina – champions at the 2024 Copa America, champions at the 2022 World Cup, champions at the 2021 Copa America, semi-finals at the 2019 Copa America, round of 16 at the 2018 World Cup, runners-up at the 2016 Copa America

Adding this year’s last-four (minimum) appearance to all this paints a picture of four superb sides. They have delivered the goods on a repeated basis over the last decade. There have been missteps for all four, with each suffering at least one defeat in the last 16. However, between them, they have won five major tournaments in this period. Additionally, there have been five further defeats in finals. On the 19th of June, those figures will swell to 12 finals in total, with six wins. Can England finally join the other three in winning a trophy, though?

The Cream Rises, but There’s Usually at Least One Surprise

In 2026, FIFA-assisted or not, the cream has risen to the top. Indeed, 2026 is the first time that FIFA’s top four have all made it to the semi-finals. There have been surprises along the way, but we have a stellar last-four lineup.

That is partly down to the fact that 2026 was the first year in which FIFA used a seeding system. The top four were put in separate quarters of the bracket. The system assumed that all four nations would win their group, as they did. This then meant that Spain could not play Argentina until the final. Similarly, England could not face France before the showpiece clash.

Over the history of the World Cup, there has yet to be a huge upset in terms of the eventual winner. Greece won the Euros in 2004, and Denmark did likewise in 1992. But we have never seen a comparable upset in FIFA’s flagship tournament.

Inevitably, the cream rises, and we almost always see a final featuring two of the very best sides in world football. That said, it is also common for the last four to feature at least one, and often two, surprise packages. For example, in 2022, Croatia and Morocco both made the semi-finals. In 2018, England were not expected to make the last four given their dismal performance at Euro 2016 and the World Cup before that. In 2010, few people fancied Uruguay to make the semi-finals. The same was certainly true of both Turkey and South Korea in 2002. And the list goes on.

High-Class Final Fours of the Past

This may be the first time all four top seeds have made the semi-finals. It should, though, be noted that 1998 was the first World Cup at which the FIFA rankings existed. It is also worth remembering that many experts considered FIFA’s ranking system highly “eccentric”, shall we say, until changes were made in 2018. As such, it was not uncommon to see nations make the top four despite patently not being one of the best four sides in the world.

Rankings aside, it is certainly not the first time we have seen four highly fancied nations progress to the semi-finals. In 2006, Italy beat France in the World Cup final in Berlin. Those heavyweights had beaten hosts Germany and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, respectively. 2006 was, in fact, the only World Cup in the 21st century (until now) where one of FIFA’s top four seeds was not eliminated in the group phase. Returning to the idiosyncrasy of FIFA rankings back then, though, it is worth pointing out that in May 2006, the top five in the world featured the Czech Republic, Mexico and the USA!

Before that, 1998 was another exceptional final four. France won the final 3-0 on home soil against a brilliant Brazil team. Brazil had beaten the Netherlands in the semi-finals. France beat Croatia 2-1, with Croatia’s first Golden Generation having lost in the quarter-finals at Euro 1996 to eventual champions Germany.

Big-Hitting Semi-Finals

Other semi-final lineups that hold up at least reasonably well against 2026 include the following:

• 1990 saw a repeat of the 1986 final between West Germany and Argentina after they had beaten England and hosts Italy, respectively.
• 1978 had a brilliant Dutch side, eventual champions Argentina, plus Brazil and Italy.
• 1974 saw an even better Netherlands side lose to West Germany in the final, with Poland claiming third place ahead of Brazil.
• 1966 was, of course, England’s one moment of glory. They beat Eusebio’s Portugal in the semi-finals. West Germany beat an excellent Soviet Union team to make the final.

In truth, looking back to earlier editions of the World Cup, it was rarer for an unheralded nation to make the semi-finals. Between 1930 and 1978, a maximum of 16 teams made the finals. From 1982 to 1994, it was just 24. This meant that, simply by virtue of making it to the tournament, a nation had de facto proved itself already. Given this, we could probably include earlier editions as well.

None of this is to detract from the magical quartet we have in 2026, though. Let’s hope they produce semi-finals in keeping with their quality and the brilliant football we have seen in the Americas thus far.