Who Will be Top at Christmas… and Does it Matter?

After 16 games of the 2025/26 Premier League season, we appear well set for a fascinating title race. Three points separate Arsenal in first and Aston Villa in third, with Manchester City in second, two points behind the Gunners. There is just one round of fixtures left before Christmas. Eight games take place on Saturday, Villa host Man United on Sunday, and then the final game of the round is on Monday, the 22nd of December.

At that point, we will know which side has the honour of being top on Christmas Day. Does this peculiarly British honour really count for much, though? As managers and pundits often point out, they don’t hand out any titles at Christmas. And yet there is still a fascination with which side is top (and also bottom) once the pre-festive fixtures have been played. Does sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League mean a club is guaranteed to be picking up the trophy come May? Moreover, which club will be top on the 25th?

Arsenal or City – or a Christmas Miracle for Villa?

You can see the standings at the top of the Premier League below:

Villa could go top with a Christmas miracle. They would need Arsenal to lose, City to fail to win… and a 14-goal change in goal difference. Therefore, we can realistically say it is the Gunners or Pep’s City that will be top on Christmas Day.

Arsenal face a tough trip to Everton. Moreover, they are wobbling at present and barely managed to beat Wolves last time out. In contrast, City have a much easier-looking clash in Manchester against relegation-threatened West Ham. It could go either way, and if Mikel Arteta’s men fail to win at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, then Man City will probably be top.

However, the Gunners are 4/6 favourites to win on Merseyside. That looks short, though, considering they have won just one of their last seven away days against the Toffees. That said, the Toffees will be without AFCON-bound Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gana Gueye. Additionally, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall seems likely to be injured, while Jack Grealish has a knock too.

Factoring all that in and the other injuries the Toffees have, plus the current Arsenal form and team news, we think the Gunners will just about have enough to pinch the win. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the game end in a draw, perhaps 0-0. However, if pushed, we would say it will be Arteta’s side, not Pep’s, eating their Christmas turkey from the summit of the Premier League. But does it really matter?

Christmas Day is not the Time to Celebrate

Christmas can be a wonderful time, full of fun, friends, family and food. We can celebrate and enjoy many things on the 25th of December but can the Premier League leaders celebrate an expected title in spring?

Last year, Liverpool were four points clear on Christmas Day and also had a game in hand. They went on to win the title by 10 points. However, that was the seventh time the Reds had topped the PL at Christmas. They only went on to win the league on one other occasion. That equates to a conversion rate of less than 29%, so Arsenal supporters might be wise to hold off on premature celebration.

However, Liverpool fans with longer memories will point to their wider record across the top flight. No side has been top at Christmas more than they have. Of the 21 times they have done so, they have won the league on 12 occasions. That more impressive conversion rate of more than 57% might bring some festive cheer to beleaguered Arsenal fans (or City supporters if they pip Arsenal to football’s Christmas number one).

Others Not So Good

If we consider the widest and fullest range of stats, there is even more reason for caution for whichever side tops the PL this Christmas. There have been 126 complete seasons of top-flight football in England. The club at the top at Christmas has delivered the title 56 times. Therefore, 44.44% of the time, being top at Christmas has led to the title that season.

However, if that sends a Christmas chill down the spines of Arsenal and/or Man City supporters, a focus on the Premier League only paints a slightly different picture. Obviously, the nature of football has changed a lot in 126 years. Therefore, it might be more accurate to consider only the Premier League era.

There have been 33 completed PL seasons. The side top at Christmas went on to win the title on 17 occasions, or 51.52% of the time. In other words, historically speaking, having the lead on the 25th of December makes a club more likely, very marginally, to claim the title than not. Whether that is cause for celebration depends on your optimism, we suppose, but it is clear that the title race has a long way to run and it is far from a done deal, whoever is top at Christmas.

And What About Arsenal?

We said that the Gunners are the team most likely to top the PL on the 25th. Moreover, we also said that looking at the Premier League stats is probably more instructive than all 126 years of top-flight football. So, how many times have the Gunners been top at Christmas?

Looking at the complete PL campaigns between 1992 and 2024, Arsenal have been Christmas number one just four times. They trail Man United and Liverpool (seven), and Chelsea (six). Man City have been top just three times. Between them, those leading three clubs have a Christmas Day/title success conversion rate of 60%, despite Liverpool’s poor PL record.

However, worryingly for Arsenal fans, they have never won the title having been top at Christmas. They were top in 2002, 2007, 2022 and 2023. In every year apart from 2007 (when they finished third), they ended the season as runners-up.

Consequently, some Gunners fans may hope their side lose to Everton and City pip them to the top-at-Christmas bragging rights. However, unfortunately for Arteta and co, this may be a no-win situation. That is because City have won the title every one of the three times they have led at Christmas. Obviously, something has to change if Arsenal are to finally win the Premier League title again. Either they must convert being top into the title for the first time, or City must fail to do so for the first time. Watch this Christmas space.