The main group phase of UEFA World Cup qualifying is now over. Some sides, including Italy, Denmark, Ireland and Wales, will have to rely on the play-offs to qualify. However, 12 group winners, among which were Spain, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, have already booked their spot at the 2026 World Cup.
Although the dozen nations to have topped their groups will all be delighted, in the end, only two managed to maintain a perfect record throughout qualifying. Spain seemed likely to do so after posting five wins from five. However, in their sixth and final group game, they were held to a 2-2 draw at home by Turkey. That was something of a surprise given that they had won the reverse fixture in Konya 6-0!
Several teams almost managed to win all of their games. Spain dropped just two points, as did France and Croatia. However, in the end, the only teams to win every single game of UEFA qualifying were England and Norway. Both won a perfect eight out of eight. With many other teams only facing six games, that made their achievements even more impressive.
Perfection from England
Given England’s recent record in qualifying for major tournaments, and at the finals themselves, supporters expected them to top Group K. Drawn alongside Serbia, Albania, Latvia and Andorra, they were the big favourites to win the group. However, the ease with which they managed it will surely have pleased their manager.
The Three Lions did not concede a single goal in eight games, scoring 22 times. Spain and Switzerland had the next-best defensive record, conceding two goals each to top Groups E and B, respectively. However, those two nations only faced six clashes, so Jordan Pickford and his defence really did achieve something very special.
England now head to the World Cup as second favourites at odds of around 6/1. Bookmakers price only Spain shorter, at 9/2. Critics will say that nobody has tested the Three Lions yet. However, their biggest challenge was expected to come when playing away in Serbia. They won that clash 5-0 and were dominant from start to finish. If they can continue to raise their game as and when required, they will have a real chance in North America next summer.
Norway: the Surprise Package
Impressive as Thomas Tuchel’s men were, it was not a huge surprise that England should win all of their games. In contrast, few experts could have predicted Norway’s perfect eight wins from eight in Group I. Ståle Solbakken’s men were second favourites to earn top spot, behind Italy. Moreover, they had not qualified for the World Cup since 1998.
Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup in 2018 and 2022. Even so, most fans would have expected them to win a group alongside Norway, Israel, Estonia and Moldova. However, they were simply blown away by Erling Haaland and co.
Italy won their six other games in Group I. But Norway beat them 3-0 in Oslo and then 4-1 in Milan. That victory in Italy came in the final fixture of the group and ensured that Norway posted a perfect eight wins from eight.
Could Norway be Dark Horses at the 2026 World Cup?
Haaland was magnificent, and he scored 16 times in the group. However, Norway also saw Alexander Sorloth and Thelo Aasgaard score five goals apiece. Moreover, they played almost the whole group phase without Martin Odegaard. If Haaland, Odegaard and the Red, White and Blue’s other top players stay fit next summer, could they be dark horses for glory?
The bookmakers currently make Norway a 33/1 shot to win the World Cup. Not long ago, they were priced at 150/1. Indeed, before the group phase began, they were closer to 500/1! They have at least two world-class players, plus a strong core that ply their trade in top European leagues. If things go their way, Norway could spring a surprise. However, while we are glad we backed them at 150/1, the value has gone at their current odds.
England are the Obvious Contenders
Even before winning all eight of their qualification games without conceding a single goal, England were obvious contenders for World Cup glory. They have won just one major tournament in their whole history. However, they have made the final of consecutive European Championships. In addition, they have made the quarters and semis of the last two World Cups. They were also a little unlucky to lose to eventual runners-up, France, in 2022, and may well have gone all the way had they won that quarter-final.
A huge factor in England’s favour is the form of Harry Kane. If the Bayern Munich man stays fit, he could make the difference for the Three Lions. At the other end of the pitch, Pickford is playing better than ever. And crucially, it seems that Tuchel is getting closer to knowing what his best side is. The German probably has six or seven nailed-on starters, one or two others that are fairly certain and just three or four places in the XI that are up for grabs.
Spain, France, Brazil and Argentina are all very strong. However, England undoubtedly have a real chance of going all the way in North America. They have incredible strength in depth, especially in creative areas. If Kane stays fit and they get the breaks, this could, just maybe, be their year!
Is Perfect Qualification a Good Omen?
England will take great confidence from their 100% record in qualifying. But just how important is it? In truth, it is not something that occurs very often. Ahead of the 2022 World Cup, eventual champions Argentina went unbeaten in 17 qualifying games. However, they drew six times and finished second to Brazil. In UEFA qualifying, no side posted a 100% record.
In 2018, France lifted the World Cup, but they won just seven of their 10 qualification contests. Germany were the only European side to boast a 100% record ahead of the 2018 World Cup. They then flopped at the finals, finishing bottom of Group F.
Four years earlier, the Germans had won the World Cup in Brazil. However, once again, no side had managed to win all of their games in qualifying.
That further illustrates what an incredible achievement it was by both England and Norway to win all of their games and book their places at the 2026 World Cup. Their 100% records offer no guarantees for what will transpire next summer, but confidence in both camps must surely be high. Moreover, fans, players, and coaches can relax and start their preparations now, without having to worry about the dreaded play-offs.
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