At the start of this Champions League season, the Premier League made history by becoming the first to have six teams in the competition. Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, and Newcastle United all performed well in the league phase. The first five all qualified automatically for the last 16. Subsequently, Newcastle, who had finished 12th in the league stage, progressed through the play-offs.
That gave English football a record six teams in the last 16. Put another way, the Premier League provided as many clubs as La Liga (three), the Bundesliga (two) and Serie A (one) combined. It was a remarkable achievement and shows the current strength (at the very top and also in depth) of the EPL. Moreover, Premier League teams finished first, third, fourth, sixth and eighth in the league phase.
Seeded teams could not be drawn to play each other in the round of 16. That and the pre-determined bracket meant that Newcastle versus Chelsea was the only possibility of an all-PL clash in the round of 16. However, the draw on 27th February pitted Newcastle against Barcelona and Chelsea against Paris Saint-Germain.
That means that we could, in theory at least, see the Premier League provide six of the eight teams in the quarter-final. Alternatively, of course, all six could fall at the next hurdle. Realistically, either of those outcomes would be a surprise. But just how many Premier League teams are likely to make the last eight?
What do the Bookies Reckon?
The simplest and often most accurate way to assess probabilities is to look at the bookmakers’ odds. Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Chelsea are in the top eight in the outright betting. That suggests that the oddsmakers believe four of the six EPL clubs will make the quarter-finals.
However, we can get a better indication of things by looking at the “to qualify” market for each of the round of 16 ties involving English teams.
- PSG v Chelsea – PSG 4/6, Chelsea 6/5; verdict: Chelsea to be eliminated
- Galatasaray v Liverpool – Galatasaray 5/1, Liverpool 1/7; verdict: Liverpool to advance
- Real Madrid v Man City – Real Madrid 2/1, Man City 2/5; verdict: Man City to advance
- Newcastle v Barcelona – Newcastle 9/4, Barcelona 2/5; verdict: Newcastle to be eliminated
- Atletico Madrid v Spurs – Atletico Madrid 1/2, Spurs 13/8; verdict: Spurs to be eliminated
- Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal – Bayer Leverkusen 7/1, Arsenal 1/9; verdict: Arsenal to advance
Looking at those odds for the relevant ties paints a slightly different picture. Now, it seems the bookies predict that three of the six EPL sides will make the last eight, with three being knocked out.
Of course, bookies’ odds do not determine the future. Nor are they, necessarily, an exact reflection of what the oddsmakers believe will play out. However, as a general rule, they certainly give us a good indication of what to expect. That is especially true in a high-class competition like the UEFA Champions League, where there are few unknowns.
Two Favourites
Football is inherently unpredictable, and supposedly inferior sides beat “better” ones week in, week out across Europe. As such, nobody can say for certain that any of the 16 remaining clubs will make it through to the last eight.
That said, when it comes to the six remaining English sides, some clearly have an easier task than others. We may yet be made to look silly, but we do not expect Arsenal or Liverpool to have any problems dispatching Bayer Leverkusen and Galatasaray, respectively.
Possible Upsets
The other four matches are far more open. Newcastle face a very tricky test against Barcelona, but cannot be entirely ruled out. Their odds of 9/4 to make the last eight equate, broadly speaking, to about a one in three chance of progression. The Catalan giants are firm favourites, but it would not be a shock if Eddie Howe’s men sent them packing. That said, we actually believe Barca are solid value at the prices and can’t really see the Magpies having enough to beat them.
PSG v Chelsea is a repeat of the FIFA Club World Cup final. The English side were brilliant that day and fully deserved to win. They upset the odds, starting as underdogs yet triumphing 3-0, and with PSG looking a far cry from the side that swept to glory in the 2025 Champions League, the Blues will fancy their chances. They finished five places and two points above PSG in the league. Although the side from Paris sit top of Ligue 1, the Premier League side is definitely in with a real chance of making the quarters.
Real Madrid’s clash with Man City is similar to Chelsea’s in some respects, but in reverse. Pep Guardiola’s men are firmer favourites than PSG are, but again, this tie looks close. Madrid have such a fantastic history with this competition, they are hard to write off. Aside from 2020, they have won the UCL every even year since 2014 (plus in 2017 too). Could 2026 be their year?
Last but not least, we have a clash between the sides sitting third in La Liga and 16th in the Premier League. There should only be one winner, and Atleti are rightly firm favourites. Once again, though, this one could go either way in our opinion. Tottenham won five of their eight games in the league phase. Indeed, they finished 10 places above the Spaniards. They had an easy draw but beat two German sides and gave PSG a fright in a 5-3 thriller in Paris.
Conclusion: Four English Clubs to Make Last Eight (But Don’t Bet on It!)
The vast wealth of the Premier League gives English clubs a huge advantage over almost all of their European rivals. This financial clout hasn’t always translated into Champions League success, but recently they have performed well. Since the 2018/19 final, the PL has accounted for six of the 14 finalists and three of the seven winners.
That each of those wins was achieved by a different team once again shows the strength in depth of the English top flight. Moreover, right now, the Premier League looks very strong. The fact that Arsenal were the only side to win all eight of their league matches – conceding just four goals along the way – further reinforces that notion.
The Gunners and Liverpool got favourable last-16 draws. In contrast, Chelsea, City and Newcastle were all pitted against heavyweights of European football. On balance, we think that four of the Premier League’s six clubs will advance. However, we also think there is a very high chance that just three make the quarter-finals. Whatever happens, we certainly have eight brilliant ties ahead of us.
No comments added yet. Be the first!