Dark Horses: The Surprise Teams in the EPL Title Race

Since the Premier League began in the 1992/93 season, only seven sides have been crowned champions. Additionally, only five teams have won the EPL title more than once. These are Manchester United (with 13 titles), Manchester City (8), Chelsea (5), Arsenal (3), and Liverpool (2).

Tottenham are the other side often included with the clubs mentioned above to complete the “Big Six”. They have never won the Premier League, although they finished as runners-up in 2016/17. The only other two sides to have tasted EPL glory are Blackburn Rovers in 1994/95 and Leicester City in 2015/16.

Both those clubs could have been viewed as “dark horses” at the time, especially Leicester. But the 2025/26 season has been exciting so far, and we could see the emergence of some unexpected challengers. Could this new batch of teams – who could be described as dark horses – seriously fight for the title? Based on the league table after seven games, that looks like a distinct possibility.

Here’s the Premier League table after seven games of the current campaign:

Beyond the Big Six: Who’s Crashing the Party in 2025/26?

As things stand, last season’s top two, Liverpool and Arsenal, occupy the top two positions in the table. However, unlike last term, the Gunners are currently in the top spot. Behind them, two sides that have never won the Premier League: Tottenham and Bournemouth. It’s more of a surprise to see the South Coast club that high up the table at present. Spurs have finished in the top three in 2017/18 (third), 2016/17 (second), and 2015/16 (third). Although last season, they flirted with relegation and finished in 17th place.

In fifth at this stage, we have Man City, who are still below par despite playing better recently. Another dark horse, Crystal Palace, is next. They have beaten champions Liverpool twice this term – once in the league, once in the Community Shield (on penalties). Chelsea, in seventh, could put themselves in the title mix. As could Everton, who are having a renaissance under David Moyes. Undoubtedly, the darkest of dark horses for the title this term would be Sunderland.

The Black Cats haven’t won the English top-flight title since 1935/36. So if they finished anywhere near the top this time around, it would be quite an achievement. Man United are not a million miles away in terms of points either. But their consistency levels would need to improve dramatically if Ruben Amorim’s side are to mount a real challenge. We can’t include the Red Devils as dark horses, though. They’ve won the Premier League more than any other side!

Which of the Dark Horses Has the Best Chance of Winning the EPL?

We’ll remove the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, and Chelsea. Therefore, the surprise title contenders at this stage are: Tottenham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Everton, and Sunderland. It’s so early in the campaign that predicting which of those sides could sustain a title challenge is difficult. As things stand, Spurs are the most likely of those to win the league according to the bookmakers.

They price Thomas Frank’s men at 40/1 to win the title. That compares to around 100/1 for Palace, 200/1 for Bournemouth and a whopping 750/1 for Everton to go all the way. We should remember, of course, the bookies priced Leicester at gigantic odds of 5000/1 at the start of the 2015/16 campaign.

Of the dark horses, we’re leaning towards Tottenham as the most likely title contender. Since Frank has arrived, the side has looked far more coherent and able to control games. They are still a work in progress (as shown by the league defeat to Bournemouth), but if they continue to improve, they could be there or thereabouts.

Bournemouth, Palace and Everton all appear to be overachieving at present. Palace have been particularly impressive, but injuries to any of their key players could cost them. Everton and Bournemouth, meanwhile, have earned some fine results, but we feel both will struggle to maintain their form as the season wears on.

Can They Go the Distance? History Suggests Not…

As mentioned earlier, only two clubs that could be described as dark horses or real underdogs have ever won the Premier League title. As you can see in the table below, a couple of clubs not in the Big Six have finished as runners-up, with Newcastle finishing second twice, and Aston Villa and Blackburn settling for second place once each.

Spurs somehow managed to retain their position in the Big Six, despite just one runners-up spot and zero EPL titles. Other than that, it’s been the usual suspects finishing in second spot. That is, Arsenal (who’ve habitually finished second in the Premier League), Man United, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Man City.

Given there have been 33 completed Premier League seasons to date, things don’t look positive for the dark horses, statistically. For instance, sides not included in the Big Six have won the title 6% of the time. Meanwhile, the lesser clubs (not in the Big Six) have finished as runners-up in 12% of EPL campaigns.

Ultimately, as Leicester showed in 2015/16, you can never discount a side’s chances of going all the way against the odds. But with Arsenal showing great consistency, Liverpool not quite hitting top gear, and Man City giving indications they could be ready to challenge again, it will be harder than ever for a dark horse to win the Premier League.