2026 World Cup Draw: Favourites, Groups & Dark Horses

World Cup 2026 Draw (Photo: BTA)

We do not yet know all 48 nations that will appear at the 2026 World Cup. Six countries are still to be determined through four UEFA play-off pathways and two inter-confederation ones. However, on Friday, the 5th of December, the draw for the North American finals took place.

For this tournament, there will be 12 groups. In half of those, we know all four teams who will battle it out for a place in the last 32. However, half are awaiting their final member. Even so, following the draw in Washington DC, which was dragged out to around three hours, we now have a good idea of how things are shaping up ahead of the 2026 World Cup.

Top Four Seeds Protected

For the first time in World Cup history, FIFA have opted to protect the top four seeds. This tennis-style seeding system means that Spain, Argentina, France and England, seeded one to four respectively, will be in different knockout brackets. England will not be able to meet France until the final. The earliest they could play Spain or Argentina would be the semis. However, this system assumes that these four top seeds will win their groups.

In theory, this will generate bigger clashes later in the tournament and avoid any two of these top nations being pitted against each other too early. You can see the odds for the four seeds below.

Spain, 5/1
Argentina, 17/2
France, 17/2
England, 13/2

Who Will the Favourites Play?

Along with the four seeded teams, Brazil are the only other nation the bookies price at single-digit odds. Managed by Carlo Ancelotti, the only five-time winners of the FIFA World Cup are priced at 17/2, so there is very little to separate the top five in the betting.

Brazil are in Group C with Morocco, Haiti and Scotland
Spain are in Group H with Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay
France are in Group I with Senegal, the IC Path 2 winner (TBC) and Norway
Argentina are in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan
England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama

Looking at those five quartets, it is clear that France have the toughest group. The fourth team in Group I is unlikely to pose too much of a test, with Iraq the most likely to prevail. However, France’s position in the outright betting is partly a reflection of the fact that they face a real challenge to top their group.

We will look at Norway shortly, but suffice to say, they will trouble the group favourites. Moreover, Senegal are ranked 19th in the world by FIFA, and they have a host of very decent players. They will also handle the North American heat better than many teams. Additionally, like other African nations, they will get the chance to hone their preparations at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, which starts on the 21st of December.

Will the Seeds Make the Semis?

Trying to plot the path through this mammoth World Cup for the top four nations is no easy task. There are so many variables and challenges that each will face along the way. Spain are the European champions, Argentina are the current world champions, and Spain beat England and Argentina beat France in their respective finals. However, as good as those four nations are, probability and history suggest that it is unlikely all four will make the semis.

Brazil, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands will all hope to make the last four or do even better. Italy, who haven’t even qualified (yet), cannot entirely be ruled out. Then there are a host of other nations who might just have what it takes to upset the odds, and the seeding.

Although it is easy to predict that one or more of the big four will miss out, identifying which is far harder. This is the biggest and most complex World Cup ever and the permutations for third-placed teams run to almost 500!

However, although England might well have to beat Brazil in the quarters to make the semis, we suspect France are the side most likely to be heading for an early exit. Obviously, Kylian Mbappe and co have their initial Group of Death to contend with. They could then face Germany in the round of 16, with other tough challenges possible if they didn’t top their group.

We also have question marks about Argentina. Obviously, they are not just about Lionel Messi, but even now he remains their talisman. And yet he will turn 39 during the tournament and is undoubtedly well past his peak. Moreover, there are even serious doubts that he will play. Without him and with the pressure of being champions, Argentina could flop. If they fail to win their group, they could play Spain in the round of 32. Indeed, the same applies if Argentina win their group but Spain finishes second in theirs.

Dark Horses

We have mentioned a number of nations that will feel they can cause a surprise in Canada, the USA and Mexico. However, major nations like Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium are not true dark horses.

Let’s take a look at some of the teams that you can back at really big odds:

Mexico at 80/1
USA at 80/1
Uruguay at 80/1
Senegal at 150/1
Switzerland at 150/1
Norway at 150/1
Austria 200/1

In the Euros, we have seen some big shocks over the years. Greece in 2004 and Denmark in 1992, in particular, stand out. However, we are yet to see a huge surprise in the World Cup. Indeed, in recent times Croatia are the only finalist we would not class as one of the biggest footballing nations, and in fairness they have an obvious pedigree and boasted some magical players in 2018. Might 2026 be the year?

Many shrewd punters are eyeing up Switzerland, co-hosts Mexico and the US, and even Senegal. However, for us, Norway may well offer the most value despite being plunged into the Group of Death.

Along with England, they were the only nation to win all their games in UEFA qualification. Moreover, they posted a goal difference of +32, scoring 37 times in eight games. They hammered Italy 3-0 at home and 4-1 in Milan.

In Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, they have two world-class players. In the World Cup, games are often settled by just a single goal, and Haaland can never be fully contained. Their squad is further backed up by the likes of Atletico Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth and several other footballers who ply their trade in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga. At 150/1, we believe they are worth a punt!