Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction: Analysis, Lineups and Statistics

In the final match of round 37 in the Premier League (PL), Chelsea welcome Tottenham, looking to return to form and break into the top eight. The Blues lost their last three league games at Stamford Bridge and haven’t won a PL home game since January. Tottenham, two points above the bottom three, will aim to extend Chelsea’s poor run in Tuesday night’s clash.

Chelsea enters this match in shocking league form and just lost the FA Cup final. At the same time, Tottenham are unbeaten in four PL games, as they look to avoid relegation.

Can Chelsea Salvage Their Season Against Struggling Spurs?

Chelsea’s season has imploded in recent months. Before last weekend’s 1-1 draw at Liverpool, the Blues had lost six PL games in a row. Now tenth in the league table, the West Londoners can now finish no higher than sixth. They also lost 1-0 to Man City in Saturday’s FA Cup final, capping off a dismal few months. New Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso faces an uphill task to end the season on a high.

Meanwhile, Tottenham were staring relegation in the face before a four-game run in the league, including last Monday’s 1-1 draw with Leeds and recent wins over Aston Villa and Wolves. Indeed, Spurs haven’t tasted defeat in their last three away games – an encouraging sign as they seek to improve their poor H2H record against Chelsea.

What Odds And Markets Are Underrated?

The odds favour a Chelsea win, but Chelsea’s poor recent home results and Tottenham’s current form suggest this London derby could be competitive. So, perhaps the draw outcome is undervalued.

Over 2.5 goals is a heavy odds-on selection, suggesting a high-scoring game. However, the recent stats show that three of both teams’ last five games produced under 2.5 goals. Tottenham conceded just five goals in those games. Also, despite their poor form, Chelsea managed to restrict high-scoring teams like Liverpool and Man City to just one goal.

The “both teams to score” market could also show some value. Especially the BTTS “no” line, which appears undervalued based on the overall lack of goals in Chelsea and Tottenham’s recent outings.

In the player markets, Chelsea’s Joao Pedro has 15 goals this season. He boasts an impressive record against Spurs, with three goals and one assist in two PL matches. You can get odds of 2.50 for Joao Pedro to score against Spurs.

Best Predictions For The Match

Chelsea and Tottenham to draw (odds of 3.80) looks the logical pick. The Blues have just three days’ rest since the FA Cup final, and have lost four home PL games in a row. They could struggle against a Tottenham side that won their last two away games. So, the Lilywhites can claim a point and extend their unbeaten run to five games.

My alternative prediction goes against pre-match expectations. I think this match will have under 2.5 goals (at odds of 2.30). Chelsea have struggled for goals, netting just three times in their last five games. Roberto De Zebri’s Tottenham side are likely to welcome a tight, low-scoring match, knowing a draw would almost guarantee their top-flight status.

Key Statistics

• Chelsea have won five straight H2Hs against Tottenham.
• Three of the last five H2Hs featured under 2.5 goals
• Tottenham have not won at Stamford Bridge since April 2018.
• Tottenham have the fourth-worst defensive stats in the Premier League (55 conceded).
• Chelsea have the league’s 13th-best home record (W6 D5 L7).
• Tottenham have the fifth-best away record in the league (W7 D5 L7).

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Robert Sanchez – Malo Gusto, Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Jorrel Hato – Andrey Santos, Moises Caicedo – Enzo Fernandez, Cole Palmer, Marc Cucurella – Joao Pedro

Chelsea’s confirmed injuries are Estevao (hamstring) and Jamie Gittens (hamstring).

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Antonin Kinsky – Pedro Porro, Kevin Danso, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie – Joao Palhinha, Rodrigo Bentancur – Conor Gallagher, Mathys Tel, Randal Kolo Muani – Richarlison

Tottenham are missing Mohammed Kudus (muscle injury), Ben Davies (ankle), Wilson Odobert (ACL), Cristian Romero (knee), Xavi Simons (knee), Dominic Solanke (knee), Guglielmo Vicario (groin), and Dejan Kulusevski (knee).

All Square In The London Derby

Chelsea and Tottenham will play out a draw at Stamford Bridge. Both teams will settle for a point in a cagey all-London clash of surprisingly few goals.

*Odds are subject to change.