Haaland and Mbappe in Line to Set the Knockout Stage Alight – Here’s How to Profit

Matchdays 3 and 4 of the FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage see France, Norway and Mexico all in action, with Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland looking to set the business end of the tournament alight. We break down Ivory Coast vs Norway, France vs Sweden and Mexico vs Ecuador.

Can Erling Haaland Break Down a Tough Ivorian Defence?

In his debut at a World Cup, Erling Haaland has already impressed. The Norwegian forward found the net four times in two games, and he’ll be looking to add to that haul against the Ivory Coast. However, this will be no easy feat as the African side hold one of the best defensive records in the tournament, conceding just two goals. Norway’s hopes rely solely on Haaland finding the net, so this sets up an ‘unstoppable force vs an immovable object’ in Dallas.

Key Statistics:

• Norway have covered the sixth-highest collective distance at the tournament.
• Ivory Coast and Norway have never previously met at senior level.
• Haaland has only faced an African nation once in his international career, and he found the net twice.
• Ivory Coast have only conceded to Germany at the 2026 World Cup, with the European side the best attacking team at the tournament so far.

Are the Bookmakers Right to Back Haaland and Norway?

Betway are offering odds of 2.00 for Norway to defeat Ivory Coast, which holds an implied probability of 50%. These odds make the European side the favourites to progress through the tie, but I don’t think it takes into account the Ivorian’s defensive solidity. Of course, Curacao and Ecuador haven’t been the most potent attacking force to test them, but Germany didn’t blow them away in a close 2-1 defeat. Haaland is 1.62 to score at any time for Norway, which has an implied probability of 61.9%. The bookmakers really aren’t giving the African side any credit at all. With the speed of Amad and Yan Diomande on the break, there is also the chance to put a Norwegian defence, which France terrorised with pace, to the sword.

Predictions:

• Ivory Coast to qualify @ 2.38 with Betway – The Ivorian defence is resolute, and I think this one will go the distance to penalties.
• Both Teams to Score and Erling Haaland to find the net at any time @ 2.20 with Betway – Haaland is good enough to find joy against even the strongest defences.

Will France and Mbappe Cruise Past Sweden Into the Last 16?

Kylian Mbappe has continued his exceptional form at World Cup tournaments this summer, and he will likely take Lionel Messi’s record eventually. He turned provider for Ousmane Dembele against Norway, but there is an expectation he will turn on the style in front of goal against an average Sweden side. Graham Potter’s side conceded five goals to a far less potent Dutch side in the Group Stage.

Key Statistics:

• In the last five meetings between France and Sweden, Les Bleus have won four.
• Kylian Mbappe scored on his last start against Sweden.
• France have scored the most goals and have had the most attempts on target at the 2026 FIFA World Cup so far.
• Sweden have the eighth lowest number of defensive pressures applied at the tournament so far.

Where is the Value in Backing France and Mbappe?

As you’d expect, the odds are massively in favour of France making short work of a Sweden side that scraped into the knockout stages. Betway have Les Bleus to win @ 1.25, which holds an implied probability of 80%. You’re not going to see much of a return with such a tip, but you can find value with other markets related to a French victory. A potentially interesting treble comes in @ 2.15 with Betway, which would require France to win the 1st half and then both Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele to provide either a goal or an assist at any time. It’s worth remembering that one of Mbappe or Dembele has been on the scoresheet in every single one of France’s games at the tournament so far.

Predictions:

• France to win the 1st half and both Kylian Mbappe/Ousmane Dembele to provide an anytime goal or assist @ 2.15 with Betway – Mbappe and Dembele are the most destructive partnership at the tournament… and they’re in good form.

Will Home Advantage Continue to Power Mexico?

Mexico have surprised many with their performances at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. El Tri have won every single game they’ve played and are yet to concede a goal. This form has given them a very winnable Round of 32 fixture against Ecuador, who have struggled through to this stage. The match will be played at Mexico City Stadium, with the home crowds having given the team an immeasurable lift so far.

Key Statistics:

• The last three matches between the two teams have ended in draws.
• Mexico haven’t reached a fifth game at a World Cup since hosting the event back in 1986.
• Ecuador has never won a knockout fixture at a World Cup.

Is a Surprise on the Cards in Mexico City?

Looking at the odds, Mexico aren’t being given the kind of backing you’d expect. Betway has them @ 2.50 to win, which only has an implied probability of 40.0%. They are still favourites, but you’d imagine the odds would be better. This begs the question… are Ecuador capable of a surprise? It’s difficult to envisage based on their Group Stage performances, especially given how impressive El Tri were, but there is real pressure on the hosts. They need to kill this ‘fifth-game’ ghost, and Ecuador can play on that unease. A team with Moises Caicedo in it always has an outside chance.

Predictions:

• Mexico to qualify @ 2.15 with Betway – This match is going to be tougher than people think, a deadlock is likely, but Mexico should find a way through.

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a single bet in the France vs Sweden game. I feel super confident about Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele putting their best performances in, and I like France to win the 1st half and both Kylian Mbappe/Ousmane Dembele to provide an anytime goal or assist @ 2.15 with Betway. With my last pick regarding Jordan vs Argentina, I’m now back to winning, after a difficult couple of days. Will this pick allow me to stay close to Russell? Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.