Argentina and Norway will continue to rely on their stars – Here’s how to profit

Matchdays 12, 13 and 14 of the FIFA World Cup Group Stage have two especially star-studded fixtures. We break down Argentina vs Austria and Norway vs Senegal. Rapid pick value bets will be discussed for the remaining games on those days. A more detailed preview and set of predictions for England vs Ghana can be found here.

Can Lionel Messi break Miroslav Klose’s World Cup record against Austria?

Argentina’s defence of their World Cup crown couldn’t have started more positively. La Albiceleste were irresistible in a 3-0 thumping of Algeria, with Lionel Messi scoring a sublime hat-trick. It was a performance indicative of a man who is now playing without the pressure of a nation on his shoulders, with the World Cup goals record now just one strike away. Austria were also amongst the goals with a 3-1 win over Jordan.

Key Statistics:

• On every occasion that Lionel Messi has scored in Argentina’s opening game of a World Cup, he’s found the net in the second game too.
• In five appearances against David Alaba, Lionel Messi has never scored.
• Argentina form: W-W-W-W-W.
• Austria form: D-W-W-W-W.

Can you afford to bet against Lionel Messi and the odds?

Betway are offering odds of 2.00 for Lionel Messi to be an anytime goalscorer in Argentina’s match against Austria. This provides an implied probability of 50%. You’d be brave to bet against Messi in the kind of form he’s in, but are Austria a potentially tricky opponent? David Alaba has an exceptional record against Messi, whilst Austria’s defence has only conceded one goal in their last three games. Conversely, the European side allowed Jordan an xG of 1.30 and 11 shots, according to footystats.org.

Predictions:

• Argentina to win and Messi as an anytime scorer @ 2.37 with Betway – Messi is in fantastic form and is playing with confidence, whilst Austria’s defence was too passive against Jordan.

*Odds are subject to change.

Can Senegal restrict Erling Haaland to under 1.5 goals?

Erling Haaland burst into life on his World Cup debut, scoring a first-half brace in Norway’s 4-1 win over Iraq in Foxborough. Senegal were able to keep Kylian Mbappe quiet for 66 minutes in their opener, yet he still blitzed them with two exceptional goals. Senegal should have a stronger squad than Norway, but their hopes in this game will ultimately come down to whether they can handle Haaland better than they handled Mbappe.

Key Statistics:

• Erling Haaland has scored in six of his last seven competitive starts for club and country.
• In eight World Cup matches against European teams, Senegal have three wins, one draw and four defeats.
• Senegal has scored just one and conceded eight goals in their last three World Cup games against European opponents.

Should you be wary of Senegal’s defensive quality?

Erling Haaland is 2.05 with Betway to score at any time against Senegal, which implies a probability of 48.8%. Betway are offering @ 3.40 for Norway to score under 0.5 goals, which has an implied probability of 29.4%. The odds clearly don’t think Senegal can keep Norway/Haaland quiet, but there is quality in their defence. Kalidou Koulibaly has kept Haaland restricted to zero goals in two of their five competitive meetings, with the Norwegian having previously labelled him ‘one of the three best centre-backs in the world’.

Predictions:

• Edouard Mendy to make 4+ saves @ 2.20 with Bet365 – Mendy is an excellent shot-stopper, and Haaland will get chances.
• Both teams to score @ 1.75 with Bet365 – Both teams have strong attacking players, and this game will get stretched.

*Odds are subject to change.

Rapid Picks: Other Key Matches

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a double bet in the England vs Ghana game. England to win and total England goals to be over 2.5 @ 2.10 with Betway. Will this pick keep me in the lead?

A 100% start in our first round of previews set me up to gamble a little bit on Brazil’s game against Haiti and Morocco’s clash with Scotland. Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.