Germany and the Netherlands are looking to avoid shock upsets – Here’s how to profit

Matchdays 15 and 16 of the FIFA World Cup Group Stage see both Germany and the Netherlands face much weaker opposition, with the odds firmly stacked in their favour. We break down Germany’s clash with Ecuador, Tunisia vs the Netherlands and Japan vs Sweden. Rapid pick value bets will be discussed for the remaining games on those days.

Could Ecuador Take Advantage Of A Reshuffled Germany XI?

Germany have put themselves in a strong position with two wins from their opening two games. With their qualification for the knockout phase secured, there may be some squad rotation from Julian Nagelsmann. Ecuador have stuttered and stalled in their two opening games, losing to the Ivory Coast and drawing 0-0 with Curacao. This leaves them facing an almighty struggle to qualify. Realistically, they need to beat Germany.

Key Statistics:

• Ecuador have faced Germany twice before, losing on both occasions.
• In five World Cup participations, Ecuador have reached the knockout phase on just one occasion.
• Ecuador haven’t scored in a competitive match since September 2025.
• Germany haven’t failed to score in a competitive match since September 2025.

Is It Worth Backing Ecuador To Pull Off The Impossible?

Betway are offering odds of 3.30 for Ecuador pulling off an upset against Germany, which has an implied probability of 30.3%. It’s fair to say that the South American side isn’t being given much of a chance. Germany, if they’re at their best, should win easily, but it will depend on how many changes Nagelsmann makes. A disjointed starting XI can struggle, especially if there isn’t much to play for. Ecuador’s attacking performance against Curacao was actually much improved; they registered 27 shots and an xG of 3.05 according to Opta.

Predictions:

• Both Teams to Score @ 1.67 with Betway – Germany may have a difficult time adjusting to changes, whilst Ecuador have to throw everything at it.

*Odds are subject to change.

Are Tunisia In Total Freefall Ahead Of Netherlands Clash?

Tunisia’s World Cup campaign has been nothing short of a disaster. Losing 5-1 to Sweden in their opener saw Sabri Lamouchi fired from his post as manager, but things didn’t improve as Japan romped to a 4-0 win over the African side in their second group game. These results have left Tunisia eliminated from the tournament, with only pride left to play for.

Key Statistics:

• Tunisia have played the Netherlands three times since 1978, losing one and drawing twice.
• Tunisia have conceded a combined 14 goals in their last three matches.
• The Netherlands are the second-highest scorers in the 2026 World Cup, netting seven goals in their two opening games.

Should You Be Wary Of A Wounded Tunisia?

With Betway offering odds of 17.0 for Tunisia to pull off a shock win against the Netherlands, it’s clear that the odds don’t make for good reading. An implied probability of just 5.9% makes this one of the biggest long shots of the tournament so far. There has been nothing encouraging in either of their two matches, even with the managerial change. Furthermore, the Netherlands aren’t guaranteed to finish top of the group, so they will have motivation of their own.

Predictions:

• Cody Gakpo to score anytime @ 1.80 with Betway – Gakpo is always good for a goal in tournament football and found the net against Sweden.
• Netherlands to score over 3.5 goals @ 2.70 with Betway – Tunisia have been in freefall and the Netherlands are finding their groove.

*Odds are subject to change.

Will Japan Top The Group?

Japan have impressed at the tournament to this point, and could very well win Group F, irrespective of what the Dutch do in their match against Tunisia. It will likely come down to goal difference, with the Oranje just ahead based on the number of goals scored. Japan’s attacking play has been very impressive so far, scoring twice against the Dutch before knocking four past Tunisia.

Key Statistics:

• Sweden have never suffered defeat to Japan in their four meetings.
• Sweden’s average xG is higher than Japan’s at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
• Japan have the 8th-best xG conceded ranking at the tournament, with an average of 0.8 xG per game. Sweden’s is much worse, sitting at 2.9.

Will There Be Goals For Both Japan And Sweden?

Japan are electric going forward. I think it’s pretty clear that they’ll add to their tally of six goals in the tournament so far, but will they be able to build up enough of a lead to win Group F? It’s almost impossible to see Tunisia getting a point against the Dutch, so the Asian side will have to outscore their European counterparts. Knowledge of this may lead to Japan becoming even more expansive and leaving gaps in defence. This looks like a strong BTTS scenario. Betway are offering odds of 1.65 of that happening, which has an implied probability of 61%.

Predictions:

• Both Teams to Score @ 1.65 with Betway – Japan know they need to outscore the Dutch. Sweden’s defence gives up too many chances. This will be an open game at both ends.

*Odds are subject to change.

Rapid Picks: Other Key Matches

The Battle of the Ws

For the Battle of the Ws in this round, I will use my entire £10 on a single bet from Tunisia vs Netherlands. I will stick with Cody Gakpo to score at any time @ 1.77 with Betway. Will this pick help me regain my lead over Russell?

Both of my selections involving Morocco and Brazil failed to come in, leaving me with a reduced balance. I’m relying on a double bet in the England vs Ghana game to catapult me back into the lead. Follow my progress against Russell Wingham in the Battle of the Ws.