Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction, Analysis and Statistics

Aston Villa host Liverpool in round 37 in the Premier League (PL), knowing that three points would help them outdo Liverpool in the race for fourth place. Both teams drew in round 36, but a win here would secure a spot in the Champions League next season.

Villa have just one win in five matches, while Liverpool are winless in two. This Friday night clash at Villa Park promises fireworks between these inconsistent teams.

Can Aston Villa Overturn Liverpool In The Race For Fourth Place?

After dropping vital points in a 2-2 draw at Burnley, Aston Villa would need a win here to leapfrog Liverpool into fourth place. But a draw would leave them level on 59 points, with Liverpool boasting the superior goal difference (+12 versus +4) going into this clash. So, the onus is on Aston Villa to win, which could leave gaps for Liverpool’s pacy attackers to exploit.

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa dominated Nottingham Forest 4-0 last Thursday to reach the Europa League final. Still, they haven’t won in their last three league fixtures.

Liverpool are coming off two disappointing performances, losing 3-2 at Man United in round 35 and drawing 1-1 at home to Chelsea last weekend, so their win odds could be underestimated.

What Value Markets Are Worth Checking?

The bookmakers make Liverpool favourites to beat Aston Villa. The home side will be focused on the Europa League final next Wednesday. Liverpool, on the other hand, still need a win to confirm their 2026-27 Champions League place. The likes of Chelsea and Tottenham have won at Villa Park in recent months, so Liverpool can also claim three points at Villa Park.

Although Liverpool have lost eight PL away games out of 18 (with a -2 goal difference), their sole focus on the league should be the difference.

Moving on to the player markets, emerging Liverpool star, Rio Ngumoha, could help steer Arne Slot’s men to victory. The left winger is a massive threat off the left flank, and you can get odds of 3.20 for Ngumoha to score against Villa.

Ollie Watkins is Villa’s top PL scorer with 11 goals, closely followed by nine-goal John McGinn. The Scotland midfield dynamo scored twice against Nottingham Forest to propel the Villans to the Europa League final. He is available at odds of 5.0 to score again on Friday.

Best Predictions For The Match

My main prediction is Liverpool to win (at odds of 2.20). In a poor season by their lofty standards, the Reds can salvage pride and confirm their place in the 2026-27 Champions League. This match is just five days before the Europa League final, so Aston Villa may field a weakened lineup, making a Reds win seem more likely.

I foresee plenty of goals, so over 2.5 goals (1.50 odds) is my second pick. Liverpool have netted 27 times in 18 away games, including each of their last seven. Aston Villa have conceded nine in four PL home matches since March.

Key Statistics

• Liverpool won seven of the last ten H2Hs.
• Three of the last five H2Hs ended with over 3.5 goals.
• Liverpool won their last three H2Hs with Aston Villa to nil.
• Four of Aston Villa’s five home league defeats have occurred since the start of 2026.
• Liverpool have not lost at Villa Park in five games – since losing 7-2 in October 2020.
• Aston Villa failed to keep a clean sheet in six successive PL matches.
• Liverpool have scored in 5 consecutive PL games.

Predicted Lineups and Missing Players

• Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Giorgi Mamardashvili – Curtis Jones, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate, Milos Kerkez – Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister – Jeremie Frimpong, Dominik Szoboszlai, Rio Ngumoha – Cody Gakpo

Liverpool have a lengthy injury list, including Alisson Becker (muscle injury), Mohamed Salah (hamstring), Hugo Ekitike (achilles), Wataru Endo (broken ankle), Conor Bradley (knee), plus long-term absentees Giovanni Leoni (ACL) and Stefan Bajcetic (hamstring).

• Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martinez – Matty Cash, Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, Ian Maatsen – Douglas Luiz, Youri Tielemans – John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendia – Ollie Watkins

Aston Villa’s injured players are Alysson Edward (muscle injury), Boubacar Kamara (knee), and Amadou Onana (calf).

Liverpool To Snatch Vital Win at Villa Park

Liverpool will benefit from an extra day’s rest to beat Aston Villa. The home side could be distracted by their upcoming Europa League final, allowing the Reds to take all three points this Friday.

*Odds are subject to change.