Value betting means finding “good odds”. In the context of value, this means prices that are higher than they ought to be based on the likelihood of an event happening. Punters who have success in the long term prioritise value. This is because eventually value trumps short-term success in a world where upsets are guaranteed. However, this approach does not ensure success and profit. Although it reduces risk, knowing the real value of a bet is impossible. Moreover, even the “best” bets and odds are subject to variance and bad luck.
What Is Value Betting?
A value bet is one where the odds are too high. A bet at evens “should” win 50% of the time. If you can get odds higher than evens, this is a value bet. Imagine Manchester City are priced at evens, Tottenham are 2/1, and the draw is 5/2. If you predict that Man City will win this game six times out of 10, a price of evens represents great value. If your prediction proves correct, you would expect to win £6 and lose £4 over 10 bets of £1, resulting in a profit overall. Another way of understanding value betting on football is to consider that the odds underestimate a team’s chances.
How to Calculate Value in Football Betting
When it comes to calculating value in football betting, or indeed any sport, there are two elements to consider. First, you must assess the probability of your selection winning. Estimating the real probability as accurately as possible is vital. Second, you must compare this probability to the odds and the probability they imply.
Estimating True Probability
Estimating true probability is fiendishly difficult. If that wasn’t the case, betting would be easy. Moreover, there is no way of truly knowing if you are right, even after the event. If a bet wins, that does not confirm your assessment was right. Equally, if it loses, that does not necessarily mean you were wrong.
To estimate the probability of an event happening, you need as much information as possible. There are obvious factors such as form, team news, stats, momentum, motivation, home advantage and so on. However, in an ideal world, with access to infinite info and unlimited computing power, you would assess everything from what each player had for breakfast to the amount of sleep they had, along with the weather, how long the grass on the pitch was and much more.
Of course, we do not have access to that information, nor the technology to properly utilise it, even if we did. However, considering every angle possible is crucial. Moreover, we can avoid obvious mistakes, like overvaluing “big” teams, especially away from home.
Comparing Probability to Odds
Thankfully, the second factor is far easier. Indeed, it is just a case of simple maths. You just need to calculate the implied probability and compare it to your estimate of the real probability.
You can use online calculators to convert odds into implied probability. However, you can easily do it yourself by dividing one by the decimal odds. Therefore, Man City at evens gives an implied probability of 50% because evens is 2.0 in decimal, and one divided by two is 0.50. If you believe the true probability is greater than 50% then a price of evens offers good value.
Key Factors That Create Value in Football Odds
Several factors affect both the odds of a team and the value they might offer. As noted earlier, the more information you can access and consider, the better your chances of spotting value.
Team Form & Underlying Stats
One of the biggest factors that affects bookies’ and punters’ assessment of how a game will go is form. However, this is generally calculated on results alone. Indeed, this is particularly true in smaller competitions.
You may be able to access value when there is a mismatch between a team’s form as measured by results and their real form as understood more fully. A side may have lost four in a row, resulting in high odds. However, it is plausible they were very unlucky in all four games and have actually been playing well. Watching as much football as possible and understanding underlying stats like xG can help you spot value. Moreover, learn to separate results out: a team might be strong at home and weak away, or might have lost games to counter-attacking sides but be great against high-possession opponents.
Injuries, Suspensions & Squad Rotation
Team news has a huge impact on a side’s chances of winning. Injuries or suspensions, especially to key players, should always be factored in. If you learn of this news before the market, the odds offered may give exceptional value.
Motivation & Match Context
Motivation, momentum, morale and context are harder to quantify than stats like results and the head-to-head record. Consequently, the odds do not always account for them accurately. Be aware of fixture congestion, sides that have been boosted by off-field developments, teams with nothing to play for versus ones with everything to fight for and similar factors.
Public Bias & Media Influence
Lots of inexperienced punters are easily swayed by “big” teams and short-priced favourites. Many recreational punters add sides to their accas just because the odds are short. Consequently, this can force the odds even lower as bookies try to protect themselves. This can create value opposing them. Generally, this is even truer when the big favourite is away from home, or the underdog is in reasonable form themselves.
Markets Where Value Is Often Found
One of the biggest factors that makes value hard to find is that the bookies factor a profit margin into their odds. This gives them a margin for error. Therefore, markets with the smallest profit margin, or overround, are often good places to search for value.
Recreational and everyday punters favour the simplest markets, such as the 1X2 match result. Generally, therefore, you may find better value in the Asian handicap markets. However, the best place to find value is in smaller games and less popular markets.
The match odds of a Premier League game are rarely out of line because there are few unknowns. Moreover, bookies invest a lot of money to make sure their prices are accurate. However, in the Spanish second division, or Bolivian football, their odds are determined more generally. Consequently, you may find good value, even allowing for the bigger overround you might encounter.
Line Shopping & Using Multiple Bookmakers
Finding value bets is much harder if you only use your favourite bookie. Odds can vary greatly between sites, sometimes by 10% or more. There are tens of excellent UK-licensed betting sites, and you can use odds comparison services to easily find the best odds.
You should also consider checking the prices at betting exchanges. Even allowing for the commission you have to pay, these can often deliver the biggest odds and therefore the most value. Although the difference between evens and 21/20 is very little on one bet, over the course of a season, it will make a big difference to your profits.
Staking & Bankroll Management for Value Bettors
If you are interested in value betting, it is important that you exercise discipline with how you bet. Staking plans, accepting and understanding variance, and sticking to your beliefs are key.
Flat staking vs proportional staking
It is crucial to consider a staking plan. Proportional staking means you bet less at higher odds. Generally, this is advised over flat staking (same stake each bet). Variance is higher at longer odds. Therefore, even if your picks are good value, frequent losses are more likely and with flat stakes, your bankroll can easily diminish.
Avoiding chasing losses
As with all betting, never chase losses. A team can be a favourite at short odds and still offer value. However, bad luck, freak goals, or poor refereeing might mean they lose. This might happen several times in a row, even to the best value bettors out there.
Why discipline matters more than strike rate
Maintain your discipline and do not go seeking out short-priced teams just to land a few winners. Value remains key. There is a huge difference between a pick that is likely to win and one that is good value. A 100/1 shot with a 10% chance of winning is amazing value. However, it is still likely to lose! The same is true vice versa.
Final Thoughts: Thinking Like a Value Bettor
Patience and experimentation are key as you begin to aim for value. Accept that losses happen to the best pros out there. Start with small stakes and make notes about your bets and thought processes. Make assessments before, during and after games to try and see if your thoughts were correct. Do not use results as the sole, or even main, indicator. Ultimately, however, even for value bettors, enjoyment should be the main aim. Football should still come first, with betting adding to your excitement, not taking away from it.