Betting should be fun, and most punters should realistically expect to lose more bets than they win. However, if you want to take your punting seriously, researching matches like a pro is the way to go. It is not easy to beat the bookies, and even with your best efforts, you should generally still view betting as a hobby. However, if you start to use your head, rather than your heart, and understand the difference between uninformed opinions and media clickbait, and proper, structured analysis, your results can only improve.
Start With the Right Mindset
First, you have to accept that football is unpredictable. All sports are. However, the low-scoring nature of football means it is especially so. Even your best thought-out bet can lose. It is vital that you understand that predictions are probabilistic, not deterministic. When you research and bet like a pro, you do not know for certain that Man City will beat Forest Green. Instead, you may think they have a 96% chance of winning. That also means you fully accept they may not win. Additionally, you should approach all bets with an open, yet neutral mind. Do not allow any bias to impact your assessments. That might be biased for or against players and teams you do or don’t like; alternatively, it might be to favour “bigger” clubs irrespective of the underlying statistics.
Analysing Team Form Properly
Results are one of the most obvious places to start when it comes to researching football bets. However, true form is about far more than just results. As said, football is low-scoring and therefore very unpredictable. Consequently, luck and freak variables can have a big impact on results. This means there is often a mismatch between how a team is playing and their results. Moreover, it is vital that you consider the strength of the opponent, too.
Additionally, whether games were at home or away is important when looking at results. Indeed, home and away form and results are other nuances to consider. You can also bring stylistic considerations into your analysis. So does a team do well against attacking teams but struggle against a low block, for example? If you can identify misleading results, your fuller understanding of the underlying and relevant form can be a huge help in finding value bets.
Digging Into the Underlying Stats
You can start untangling results and real form by looking at underlying stats. One of the best metrics to use is xG (Expected Goals). The xG stat is far from perfect. However, it is a quick and simple way to learn more about how a side has been performing. In essence, xG is a way of rating the quality of the chances a team creates. Generally speaking, over time, teams that create lots of good chances (ones with a high probability of scoring) and concede few of these chances themselves will win games.
Traditionally, shots and shots on target were the go-to stats to understand who had had the better of a game. Now you can use xG, as well as these and other stats (for example, possession, or touches in the opposition’s area). If a team has been losing games but posting strong stats across these metrics, there is a chance their odds may be unreasonably high. This could allow you to find a winner at a nice price.
Ideally, you should use stats alongside qualitative assessment, such as watching games. Stats never tell the whole story. Indeed, a side may thrive despite poor xG stats if they have brilliant strikers and a world-class goalkeeper. Conversely, the opposite is also true.
Team News, Injuries & Squad Rotation
Another obvious area to research is team news. For standard league fixtures, this is sometimes straightforward, and you can expect both managers to field their strongest teams. Based on press conferences that take place prior to the game, these are often predictable.
However, things are often not so straightforward. Players may be subject to late fitness tests, while managers often keep their cards close to their chests. Fixtures often come thick and fast, especially for clubs in Europe, so squad rotation is also a big factor.
Some teams have the squad depth to handle this much better than others. However, even the most stacked squads will experience some drop-off in quality when key men are rested. Only once the line-ups are confirmed can you really fully assess the odds. Surprising late team news can cause big price movements and create lots of value for savvy punters. This is especially true when key players are injured during the warm-up.
Tactical Match-Ups & Playing Styles
In the modern era, there is so much analysis around football. As well as stats and hard data, there is a lot of focus on more in-depth analysis of styles, tactics and formations. The notion of “match-ups” is very big in cricket (and other sports), where, for example, a particular bowler will be brought on to attack a certain batter.
It also applies to football, both on a team and an individual level. The style and attributes of some teams and players work better, or worse, against certain other opponents. In extreme cases, this can mean that form and league position are very much secondary.
Factors to consider include set-piece prowess and weakness, possession versus counter-attacking, low-block teams and those that press very high and other areas such as discipline, width, midfield control and so on.
Motivation & Match Context
When you research matches like a real betting professional would, you must consider every possible factor that might affect the outcome. That means looking at the micro and the macro. Part of the bigger-picture analysis should concern the context of the game.
For example, first legs tend to be cagier and thus lower-scoring than second legs. Similarly, games in the knockout phase of cups, especially the semis and finals, are also often tight, tense affairs.
Pros will also consider other contextual and motivational factors. Things to include in your analysis are local rivalries (form may not go “out of the window” but it is certainly less of a consideration), the pressure of the occasion and times where one side clearly has a lot more at stake than the other. For example, at the end of the season, one side might have nothing to play for while the other is chasing a play-off place or title.
External Factors That Influence Matches
There are also further, less obvious influences that betting pros will include in their research. Home advantage in itself is beneficial. However, travel distance and timing for the away team should also be a factor. Additionally, early and late kick-offs should be considered.
The weather and pitch conditions can also play a big part in how a game plays out. Additionally, this should be thought about in relation to playing style and tactics, too. The referee is another important consideration. Indeed, rookie punters betting on cards generally pay too much attention to the players and not enough to the man in black.
Building a Simple Research Process
Now that you know the core principles of how to research matches like a pro, it is important to build them into a simple process. Your research should be repeatable and consistent, but flexible. You should first narrow your options down to a shortlist of matches you believe may provide good opportunities. Knowing when not to bet and the discipline to stick to that is just as important as finding good wagers.
Keep rich, detailed notes about why you selected a bet and how it played out. Results should be measurable but not limited to just profit and loss. Rating your bets with the benefit of hindsight and noting what you might have missed and what you got right will help you learn and improve.
Final Thoughts: Thinking Like a Pro Analyst
Bringing all of these thoughts together can help you research, think and bet like a pro. Stay consistent and give your ideas enough time to gather sufficient data about what is and isn’t working. Moreover, do not try to be too clever or change course too often. Every prediction and bet, win or lose, gives you the chance to learn. Stay objective, stay focused, and keep your discipline… and good luck!