How to Study the Stats When Betting on Combat Sports

Millions of us bet on combat sports, including professional boxing and mixed martial arts, each year.

We love the drama, excitement, and unpredictability of a big fight, but there’s more to combat sports betting than simply picking the winner.

Need advice on improving your strike rate and finding the best odds? You’ve arrived at the right page.

Keep reading as former professional boxer turned sports betting writer Frankie Monkhouse explains how to study the stats when betting on combat sports.

Look Past the Record

To find strong boxing bets, start by researching a fighter’s record, but it doesn’t always tell the full story.

You must dive deeper. Consider the level of opposition, the methods of victory, and whether a fighter is on the way up or on the slide.

Suppose a boxer’s record shows 20 wins and 2 defeats. That’s impressive, but not if they’ve been beating lesser opposition and lost when stepping up on two occasions. Every fighter has their level; you must predict which company a boxer belongs in.

The same goes for mixed martial arts. Has a fighter been beating big-name opponents as they blaze a trail of glory to the top of the division? Or have they been beating low-ranking opposition?

Never underestimate the value of recent form in boxing and MMA. How have they been performing over the last two years? Are they approaching their peak or past their best?

Study the Stats

Next, look at a fighter’s performance, not just the result.

Check the number of punches thrown and landed in a contest. Does a boxer start fast and fade in the later rounds, or do they warm into a contest before coming on strong?

One punch can end a fight at the highest level, but accuracy is important. The more clean punches a fighter lands, the more likely they are to win.

Next, check on the power shots. A boxer may throw fewer punches, but more meaningful shots. In many cases, you can’t teach punch power. Some fighters are born with it; some prefer to rely on skill and speed.

In mixed martial arts, strikes landed per minute and accuracy highlight offensive output. Strikes taken per round can also show defensive frailties.

Examine KO Rates

Knockout percentages are always popular with bettors.

A fighter with a 20-0-0 record with 15 KO wins has a 75% knockout rate. That would inspire many bettors to jump on the KO/TKO win, but there’s more to consider.

Investigate the level of opponents who were stopped, the method of victory, and when the bouts ended. Does a boxer like to target a KO/TKO inside the first six rounds, or does an MMA champion have a high submission rate but a low KO rate?

The goal is to identify whether one fighter’s strengths match their opponents’ weaknesses.

For example, a boxer with several early stoppage wins against an opponent with a habit of starting slow and warming into bouts gives us an obvious bet. Instead of betting on the knockout win, you’d aim for better odds by backing the same fighter to win 1-6 in the round group betting market.

Never Overlook Defence

Don’t ignore a fighter’s defence.

When betting on boxing, study how often a fighter takes clean shots. Do they struggle with pressure, or do they sit comfortably behind a tight guard, absorbing punches on their gloves and waiting to land a timely counter?

Two defensive fighters often make a bout go long into the night, and there’s a strong chance it will test the scoring judges.

A meeting of two more aggressive fighters may not last long. If I see a meeting of two big punchers with a disregard for defence, I’d keep it simple and bet the fight won’t go the distance and challenge the judges.

Betting Oddsp

After picking a fight to bet on, studying the stats, and landing on a prediction, the final step is to get the best odds available.

Join more than one sportsbook, collect the welcome bonuses offered, including free bets, and compare the odds offered. Bet at the sportsbook offering the highest price on your selection. Even a small difference can build up over the course of a season.