The 2025-2026 English Premier League (EPL) season is now well underway, and the race is on for a coveted top 4 finish. A top 4 place brings Champions League qualification and big financial rewards, as teams battle for points right to the season’s climax in May.
“Top 4 Finish” is a popular betting market with punters. So, let’s examine the latest top 4 odds, how the main contenders shape up, and some interesting value bets.
*All Odds are subject to change!
Top 4 Finish Odds Explained
In basic terms, “Top 4 finish odds” means betting on a team to finish in the first four places in the final standings.
Bookmakers display fractional odds (such as 2/1) or decimal odds (like 3.0). For instance, if a team has odds of 3.0, they have a 33% probability (chance) of a top 4 finish.
During the season, the odds can shift due to good or bad form, injuries, fixture backlogs, and moves in the transfer window. So, it’s important to identify value instead of looking straight at the favourites.
Top 4 Finish: Main Contenders
Last season’s top 4 placed teams head the betting, all available at odds on prices.
Arsenal
Best odds: 1.11 at Betway (90% probability)
It’s no surprise that Arsenal are such short-odds favourites for the top 4. Three successive second place EPL finishes shows consistency.
Now, The Gunners fans are set to mount a title challenge, rather than settle for a top 4 finish.
Liverpool
Best odds: 1.11 at Betfred (90% probability)
For defending EPL champions Liverpool, a top 4 finish is the bare minimum expectation.
Smart pre-season transfers give Liverpool an excellent chance. Hugo Ekitike has replaced Darwin Nunez. Meanwhile, Florian Wirtz adds creativity, and new full-backs freshen the title-winning squad.
Man City
Best odds: 1.28 at Bwin (78% probability)
Last season, third place was disappointing by Pep Guardiola’s lofty standards. Now this is very much a City in transition with many new signings. The likes of James Trafford, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Tijjani Reijnders, and Rayan Cherki can help City secure a Champions League spot.
Chelsea
Best odds: 1.61 at Betfred (62% probability)
The Blues have grown in confidence since winning the World Club Cup. Enzo Maresca now looks to build on that success with a confident title challenge. The Stamford Bridge faithfully expects Champions League qualification.
Top 4 Finish: Outsiders
Now let’s look beyond the bookmaker’s favourites. Which clubs are less favoured for the top 4?
Tottenham
Best odds: 4.0 at Ladbrokes (25% probability)
Like Chelsea, Spurs’ confidence has grown after major trophy success. The 2025 Europa League win gives the squad a taste of Champions League football. They’ll be keen to stay at that level.
Tottenham make a fresh start under new boss Thomas Frank. After a 17th place finish in 2024-25, they have major room for improvement.
Newcastle
Best odds: 5.0 at Betfred (20% probability)
Newcastle are still fresh from League Cup success last term. The Magpies have impressive squad depth. But juggling EPL and European football may test their resilience.
Despite the Aleksandr Isak saga, Eddie Howe continues to build a solid squad on Tyneside. Can they build on last term’s fifth place to break into the top 4?
Man United
Best odds: 5.0 at Bet365 (20% probability)
Following an awful 16th-place finish last term, Man United Devils boss Ruben Amorim continues his squad evolution. The Red Devils have spent £200+ million on Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, and Benjamin Sesko. There is pressure on Amorim to produce positive results. But a top 4 finish looks a step too far, as they still struggle to adapt to his 3-4-3 formation. Plus, the goalkeeper position and lack of midfield energy doesn’t inspire confidence.
Aston Villa
Best odds: 9.0 at Coral (11% probability)
Unai Emery’s tactical nous has made Villa a real threat to the established top clubs.
The loss of Jacob Ramsey to Newcastle is a blow. But Villa have retained the nucleus of last term’s sixth-placed squad. Emery’s men will fancy themselves to qualify for the Champions League once again.
Other Outsiders
Outside selections include Brighton and Nottingham Forest – both at odds of 21.0 (5% probability) with Betfred and William Hill, respectively.
These outsiders offer a lower chance of a top 4 finish. But sometimes these picks can offer good long-shot value.
What Affects The Top 4 Race?
Consider different factors that could impact a team’s chances of a top 4 finish:
- Fixtures: A run of tough matches and late-season schedule congestion.
- Injuries: Player injuries and suspensions can test squad depth.
- Management: A stable, secure management or coaching setup helps players feel settled.
- Europe: Midweek European matches on top of weekend EPL games can add to player fatigue.
- Transfer window: The January window can bring new signings to push for a higher finish.
Best Value Bets
Having considered the major top Away from the odds-on favourites, I pick out two teams with a sensible chance of grabbing a top 4 place.
Tottenham at odds of 4.0 odds could be an attractive value bet. Given their recent 2-0 win at Man City, Spurs look confident and organised. The front three of Richarlison, Brennan Johnson, and Mohamed Kudus can propel Tottenham to a surprise top 4 berth.
Aston Villa at 9.0 may be a smart each-way or speculative bet. They look undervalued in the market compared to Newcastle and Man United at shorter odds.
Top 4 Betting Strategies
To help you make informed top 4 predictions, consider the following strategies:
- Compare odds at several bookmakers: This lets you find the best price on your selection.
- Look at the stats like historical home and away results, recent form.
- Avoid betting based on emotions: Stick to the best value selections in the top 4 betting markets.
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